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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
380 FXUS65 KLKN 062019 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 119 PM PDT Thu Jun 6 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Strong high pressure will slowly move east with hot temperatures expected for the next few days. Meanwhile, showers and thunderstorms will move across northwestern and northern Nevada through tonight. After a brief break of drier weather, another round of showers and thunderstorms expected across central and east-central Nevada Friday. Shower and thunderstorm activity will decrease in coverage and shift eastward over the weekend. Dry summer-like conditions settling back into the region next week. && .SHORT TERM...Tonight through Friday night A strong ridge of high pressure will slowly shift eastward, allowing an increase in mid-level moisture and instability. Showers and thunderstorms are developing today and expected to last through tonight for much of northwestern and northern Nevada. Gusty outflow winds, small hail, and cloud to ground lighting will be the primary threats. After a brief break of drier weather late tonight, the axis of mid-level moisture and instability moves into central and east-central Nevada, bringing another round of showers and thunderstorms Friday. Highs will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s with lows in the upper 50s. .LONG TERM...Saturday through next Thursday Over the weekend, chances for isolated/dry thunderstorms are still expected for parts of central and northeastern Nevada with chances below 20%. The weather is expected to shift northeastward giving chances in northeastern Elko County 20-50% for isolated thunderstorms and is will dissipate by the end of the weekend and into early Monday morning. The recent weather is expected to see a slight cooling in the temperatures with highs on Saturday in the upper 80s to 90s, and by Sunday be in the 80s with valleys in the low 90s. Breezy afternoon winds in two directions associated from the frontal passage over the state. Central Nevada expected to have southerly winds at 10-15 mph and northern Nevada will have westerly winds at 10-15 mph. Monday through Thursday, a break in the weather as models show greater confidence of an off-cut-low heading south towards the coast of Mexico and not expecting Well to move north until Thursday, however with the distance of the low far south, a weak upper ridge to near zonal flow is expected to remain over the silver state, leaving drier and warmer weather conditions. This will make the high temperatures that have now cooled into the 70s to 80s on Monday, gradually warm back up into the 80s and 90s, with Thursday highs in the upper 80s to 90s. The weather pattern is expected to bring westerly/northwesterly winds at 10-15 mph in the afternoons, however on Thursday, models are indicating that the off-cut-low will begin to shift back north and merge with the ridge, which will make the wind direction change, keeping the westerly winds at 10-15 mph in northern Nevada, but a southerly flow at 10-20 mph for central Nevada. && .AVIATION...-SHRA and VCTS conditions expected at all terminals this afternoon and into the evening hours. VFR conditions dominant, however could drop to MVFR or lower from passing storms. Winds expected at 10 kts or lower, however, outflow from passing storms may be present. && .HYDROLOGY...Well above normal temperatures are expected to increase the snow melt on the remaining snowpack on mountain tops. Showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and Friday could produce wetting rains over the remaining snowpacks, leading to rapid increases in flows in some of the creeks and streams. The lower Humboldt near Battle Mountain remains in action stage and is forecasted to slowly rise but remain in action stage for the next several days. Wildhorse Reservoir is forecast to remain in action stage for the next several days. Lamoille Creek continues to trend upward with diurnal fluctuations in height. An overall increasing trend is observed with the creek reaching minor flood stage by tonight as temperatures remain well above normal. Jarbidge River is forecast to slowly rise but remain in action stage over the next few days. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ 90/97/97