639
FXUS65 KLKN 152017
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
117 PM PDT Sun Sep 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A few strong thunderstorms are possible in most of the service
area this evening. A storm system will impact Northern and Central
Nevada this evening through Tuesday afternoon, resulting in
periods of precipitation. The majority of this precipitation will
fall Monday and Monday night. A few severe thunderstorms are
possible in Eastern Elko and Northeast White Pine Counties Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Monday night
An upper-level area of low pressure will move eastward over
Central California tonight. This cyclone aloft will progress
northeastward across Northern and Central Nevada Monday and Monday
night. A few strong thunderstorms are possible in most of Northern
and Central Nevada this afternoon into this evening. The primary
thunderstorm hazards will be wind gusts near 45 mph, dangerous
cloud to ground lightning strikes, and small hail. Thunderstorm
probabilities this evening vary from 20 to 30 percent in Southern
Elko and White Pine Counties to 10 to 20 percent in Northern Elko
and Eureka Counties. Periods of precipitation are expected
throughout Northern and Central Nevada this evening through Monday
night. Here are probabilities of one half of an inch of rain or
higher for select locations in Northern and Central Nevada this
evening through Monday night:

Winnemucca - 87%
Owyhee - 79%
McDermitt - 79%
Battle Mountain - 68%
Austin - 65%
Jackpot - 48%
Elko - 40%
Wells - 39%

A few severe thunderstorms are conceivable in Eastern Elko and
Northeastern White Pine Counties Monday afternoon into Monday
evening. The primary thunderstorm hazards will be locally damaging
wind gusts near 60 mph, dangerous cloud to ground lightning
strikes, and small hail. Thunderstorm probabilities Monday
afternoon into Monday evening vary from 30 to 40 percent in
Western Elko, Central Elko, and Northern Eureka Counties to 20
to 30 percent in Eastern Elko, Southern Eureka, White Pine,
Lander, and Humboldt Counties.

High temperatures Monday afternoon will be around fifteen degrees
cooler than this afternoon. Strong, gusty southerly winds are
expected in Northeastern Nye and White Pine Counties Monday.
Blowing dust will reduce visibilities at times. Travel will be
difficult, particularly for high profile vehicles. A Wind Advisory
is in effect for Northeastern Nye and White Pine Counties from 10
AM PDT Monday morning until 8 PM PDT Monday evening.

.LONG TERM...Tuesday through next Sunday
A trough of low pressure will slowly move east of the region by
Tuesday. A tightening surface pressure will bring breezy to windy
conditions across portions of central and north- central Nevada.
South to southwest winds will increase to 10 to 15 mph with gusts
to 25 mph. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will
linger for much of the day. Most of the rainfall is expected
across central and north- central Nevada, with storm total amounts
ranging from 0.10 to 0.25 of inch of rain.

Another trough of low pressure will bring the next round of
widespread showers and thunderstorms along with breezy winds
Wednesday through Thursday. Storm total amounts will range from
0.25 to 0.50 inch of rain in central NV. By early to mid next
week, highs will cool into upper 50s to lower 60s with lows in the
mid 30s. As the trough exits the region, a zonal flow pattern and
dry weather returns for the weekend. Highs will warm into the
upper 60s to lower 70s with lows in the mid 30s to lower 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...
A weather disturbance approaching the region will bring showers
and thunderstorms for portions of northern and central NV, with a
15-20% chance of VCTS at KEKO and KELY. Gusty S-SW winds are
expected to subside sometime after 02Z Monday for most TAF sites.
Gusts to 25-30 kts will continue tonight and Monday morning at
KELY. Showers will continue overnight at KWMC with a brief
reduction of CIG/VIS to MVFR at times. Otherwise, VFR conditions
expected at all terminals.

As the disturbance moves inland Monday morning, expect conditions
to deteriorate further after 15Z Monday as another round of
showers and thunderstorms develop. This will allow for periods of
MVFR conditions for all TAF sites during the afternoon and
evening hours. S-SW winds of 10 to 15 kts with gusts to 20-30 kts
expected at KWMC, KBAM, KEKO, and KTPH. Gusts to 35-40 kts
expected at KELY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Elevated fire weather conditions are expected in Northern Nye
County this afternoon into this evening due to south to southwest
wind gusts near 40 mph and minimum relative humidity values as low
as 16 percent. A few strong thunderstorms are conceivable in the
majority of Northern and Central Nevada this afternoon into this
evening. The primary thunderstorm hazards will be erratic wind
gusts near 45 mph, dangerous cloud to ground lightning strikes,
and small hail. A storm system will impact Northern and Central
Nevada this evening through Tuesday afternoon, resulting in
periods of precipitation. South wind gusts near 45 mph are
expected in Northeastern Nye and White Pine Counties Monday. A few
strong to severe thunderstorms are possible each afternoon and
evening Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM PDT Monday Northeastern Nye
County...White Pine County.

&&

$$

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