Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
221 FXUS65 KLKN 130907 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 207 AM PDT Thu Jun 13 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Isolated thunderstorms are expected this afternoon across portions of central and northeast Nevada. These storms may be accompanied by light rain showers later in the afternoon and evening. Afternoon breezes to 30 mph are possible, though any thunderstorm could produce convective outflows to 45 mph. Highs will continue to be above normal with readings in the upper 80s to mid 90s. Look for drier conditions Friday along with cooling conditions through the weekend. && .SHORT TERM...Today through Friday night. Clouds have diminished across central Nevada this morning, resulting in mainly clear skies. The main features for today are a large upper level high pressure rotating across southern New Mexico and a closed upper low that is expected to slowly drift to the northeast today with a position in southern California later tonight. Low level convergence is expected to develop across central through northeast Nevada. Initially, isolated dry thunderstorms will form in central Nevada as CAPE values are forecast to be around 100-300J/kg, with higher values in northern Elko county. As a result, more wet storms are expected across northern Elko county. In addition, storm motions during the latter portions of the afternoon and evening will be around 5 to 10 knots. High temperatures will be in the upper 80s to mid 90s. Winds will be breezy in the afternoon with gusts to 25 mph. Look for sprinkles during the evening and overnight hours in Elko county, otherwise skies will be mostly clear. Overnight lows will be in the 50s. On Friday and Friday night, the aforementioned upper low will be moving across Arizona and Utah during the day. For northern and central Nevada, southwest flow will develop as an upper low pressure system moves into the Pacific Northwest states. Southwest winds 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph will develop in the afternoon. Afternoon buildups are possible over eastern Elko county with mostly sunny skies elsewhere. Highs will be in the 80s and 90s. Look for mostly clear conditions for the overnight period with lows in the 40s and 50s. .LONG TERM...Saturday through next Wednesday Warming trend is expected to end as models are showing a strong upper level trough moving in from the northwest, bringing in moist and much cooler air. Temperatures will begin to cool off over the weekend starting from the north, with Saturday highs having northern Nevada in the 70s, while central Nevada is in the 80s. Further each day, the cooler temperatures move southward and bringing high temperatures into the 70s on Sunday, 60s-70s by Monday, and Tuesday in the 60s. Low temperatures are also expected to cool down with lows into the 30s to 40s with Monday and Tuesday nights the coolest, as some higher elevations could see low temperatures below freezing. This cold front is expected to increase chances for isolated showers, however it will be in northern Nevada with chances below 25% on Monday and Tuesday. Northwesterly winds also expected to increase in the afternoons at 10-20 mph. Wednesday, there is low confidence on the weather pattern as some models show the upper level trough strengthening while others show it weakening but remain over northwest U.S. and into central U.S.. Temperature trends expected to return to warming with high on Wednesday back into the 70s with calmer weather and southwesterly winds at 5-10 mph. && .AVIATION...VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours at all terminals. Afternoon breezes are again expected with gusts generally around 20KTS and high based cumulus will also be present with towering cumulus across the region. 15% probability for thunderstorms at KBAM and KEKO this afternoon as well, though not enough confidence for storms on terminal to include in the TAF. && .FIRE WEATHER...Mid-level moisture and instability will combine to bring isolated dry thunderstorms to portions of central and northeast Nevada today. Storm motions are forecast to slow later this afternoon and any storms are expected to trend towards a mix of wet and dry storms in central Nevada, to mostly wet storms in northeast Nevada. Some afternoon breezes to 30 mph are possible, though any convective outflows to 45 mph are possible from any thunderstorm. Look for gradually cooling, though dry conditions through the weekend. && .HYDROLOGY...Temperatures will continue to reside warmer than average through Friday before cooling several degrees for the weekend. This will allow remaining high mountain snow-pack to continue to melt at a quicker rate. Dry and mostly sunny weather is expected, with little threat of showers or thunderstorms bringing a rain on snow event this week as well. The Humboldt River near Battle Mountain will continue to reside in action stage for the next several days. Wildhorse Reservoir will continue to reside in action stage for the next several days. Lamoille Creek will continue to reside in action stage for the next several days. Diurnal fluctuations in height and discharge will also continue with the creek peaking during the evening hours. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ 86/97/92