Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY
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325 FXUS63 KLMK 171703 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 103 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... * Chances for rain Tuesday and Wednesday for areas along and east of I-75. * Summer warmth returns by Friday and Saturday with highs nearly 10 degrees above seasonal normals with temperatures near or even into the low 90s. && .UPDATE... Issued at 907 AM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024 Light spotty rain showers have pushed into the region this morning but are encountering a layer of dry air (surface up to ~700mb) that is limiting accumulations. Most KY Mesonet and ASOS/AWOS readings across the Kentucky Bluegrass region where the showers are most prevalent on radar have not picked up any measurable rain at this point. Expect much of the same for the remainder of the day, with only very light amounts anticipated across our eastern zones. Did adjust temps down slightly across the east where the cloud cover and spotty showers should keep temperatures in the low/mid 70s for much of the day. Otherwise, forecast is on track. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 334 AM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024 Upper low associated with the former Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight is parked over the western Carolinas and won`t go anywhere fast. However, it`s still trying to sling moisture westward across the Appalachians, and that will be the main weather feature of interest in the Ohio Valley today and tonight. Confidence in the forecast is medium at best, with the most likely impact being an increase in cloud cover, mainly as a mid-level ceiling. How far west any precip bands can advance is less certain, especially with dewpoints still in the lower 50s in the Bluegrass region. By late in the day, we should be able to squeeze out a few showers along the I-75 corridor, but anything attempting to advance much farther west than the Kentucky River should weaken quickly. Have included a 20-30% chance for showers for the afternoon and evening, roughly along and east of Highway 127. Temps will be heavily impacted by the cloud cover, with highs limited to the mid/upper 70s in the Bluegrass region, but potentially getting well into the 80s west of I-65. Expect a similar but opposite spread in overnight lows, with the cooler temps west and warmer east. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 334 AM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024 We will remain under the influence of the meandering stacked sfc and upper low that will briefly stall out over the eastern TN River Valley for the middle of the week. This will keep some linger rain chances across our far eastern CWA, in generally the same place as Wednesday, along and east of the I-75 corridor. Cyclonic flow around the system will keep us under more north to northwesterly flow. This will give us gradient of highs across the CWA with temperatures ranging from near to low 80s east of I-65 with low/mid 80s to the west. Thursday and into the weekend, the upper low will start to work off to the northeast as strong ridging builds into the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes from Texas. As heights increase aloft and sfc high pressure builds in over the region, the rest of week and into the weekend will be dry and unseasonably warm. Highs will build back into the mid to upper 80s by Thursday. We will still see that east to west temperature gradient with the lingering cyclonic flow from the departing system. By Friday and Saturday it will be much warmer and very summer-like with highs in the upper 80s to even low 90s across central KY and southern IN. An approaching system and upper trough across the Dakotas and Canada will work eastward towards the Upper Great Lakes by Sunday. Models differ some on this system but with increased moisture flow from the south and a slight inverted sfc trough, we could see a slight increase in isolated to maybe scattered showers and storms. Still to early to make a call given the discrepancies in the models. Temperatures will remain warm but a bit cooler than the end of the week with highs in the mid 80s. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 102 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024 Scattered showers continue to push into eastern regions of the CWA but are dissipating with westward extent as they encounter drier air. This activity will likely continue through the remaining daylight hours but begin to taper down overnight. Cigs/Vis should stay in the VFR range through most of the forecast period, but could flirt with MVFR conditions toward dawn tomorrow as low level moisture works in from the east. Best chances for any sort of flight impacts would be along and/or east of I-65. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...None. IN...None. && $$ UPDATE...DM SHORT TERM...RAS LONG TERM...BTN AVIATION...DM