734
FXUS63 KLMK 150005
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
805 PM EDT Sat Sep 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

*  Widespread showers around Bowling Green tapering off by
   midnight.

*  Chances for rain (<40%) possible around midweek; otherwise,
   mostly dry and warm through next weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 804 PM EDT Sat Sep 14 2024

Quick update to increase PoPs southwest through southeast of Bowling
Green as showers, and a couple rumbles of thunder, move up out of
middle Tennessee. IR satellite shows warming tops and radar
indicates that the convection is increasingly poorly organized and
outflow dominated as the sun sets. HRRR agrees with this trend, and
still has convection dissipating by midnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 311 PM EDT Sat Sep 14 2024

Temperatures across the region have warmed well into the 80s this
afternoon, and the cu field has developed due to the sfc heating
taking place. Much more cloud cover is located just to our south,
with an axis of thick and agitated cloud cover stretching from
Georgia to far western Kentucky. This area is under more influence
from the remnants of Francine, with large scale forcing and a
corridor of 850mb jetting providing an increase in moisture
transport and convergence. Most of our region will remain dry
for the rest of the day, but some isolated to scattered showers
and storms are possible this afternoon and into the evening
hours for south-central Kentucky. The main corridor for
convection will be within the moisture transport axis, which
follows the 850mb core from northern Georgia/Alabama, through
middle Tennessee, and into far western Kentucky. A few cells are
already popping on the northern periphery of this corridor.
Steep low level lapse rates, along with some marginal
instability, will allow for some thunderstorms across the south
for the next few hours. However, wind profiles are very weak
this far north, so shear will be nearly nonexistent. Severe
storms are not expected, but some heavier rain rates may be
possible given PWATs over 1.5 inches. Precip activity will
diminish as we get later into the evening hours, and should have
dry conditions after midnight across the entire region.

Rex Block pattern for tomorrow will help push the tropical remnants
more southward, which will keep us dry again. Temperatures will warm
into the 80s again, and perhaps some spots closer to 90. Some
guidance suggests a low chance of an isolated shower again tomorrow
afternoon southwest of Bowling Green, but not too confident in this.
Will limit PoP to 20% for a few hours tomorrow afternoon for areas
west of I-165, but otherwise dry conditions and mostly sunny for the
rest of the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 311 PM EDT Sat Sep 14 2024

Much of next week will feature an unusual upper level pattern for
our region as broad upper ridging over the northeastern U.S.
interacts with a decayed tropical system (Francine) and one that
may develop early next week near the Carolina coastline in a weakly
sheared environment.

The remnants of Francine will likely be confined to our south as
upper ridging in the northeast and weak steering flows keep it from
wobbling into the Ohio Valley, so no rainfall is anticipated from
that early next week. What could briefly impact us is a potential
tropical system that may develop near the Carolinas and swing into
eastern Kentucky as early as Tuesday. There is still quite a bit of
uncertainty in the path and development of this system, though at
this time it appears the majority of precipitation associated with
this system will be well off to our east. Both NBM and a composite of
ECMWF/GFS/CMC ensembles highlight chances for measurable rainfall
(greater or equal than 0.01") around 30-40% near the I-75 corridor
in our eastern CWA, with lesser chances as you progress westward.

Outside of the potential glancing blow from this system, the
forecast looks quiet and dry in the weak upper level flow pattern.
Temps will be on the warm side of climo given the higher
thicknesses/heights due to the proximity of the broad upper ridge.
The coolest temps are expected mid-week due to mid/upper level
clouds from the potential tropical system limiting solar insolation.
A western CONUS trough will attempt to slide eastward through much
of this week, but may only make it as far as the central U.S. by
next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 645 PM EDT Sat Sep 14 2024

A few showers will be possible in/around BWG this evening before
they dissipate entirely. Otherwise, surface high pressure stretching
from Maine to Missouri will keep skies mostly clear/partly cloudy
and winds coming in from the east. Winds could get a little gusty
tomorrow afternoon, especially at LEX.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...13
SHORT TERM...CJP
LONG TERM...DM
AVIATION...13