522
FXUS63 KLMK 241917
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
317 PM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

*  Strong to severe storms possible early this evening, primarily
   east of Interstate 65. Gusty winds will be the main severe
   threat, with hail a secondary threat. A brief tornado is also a
   non-zero threat.

*  Drought-easing rainfall is likely late in the week as the
   remnants of Helene move into the region Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Breaks in the clouds allowed enough destabilization to support the
development of showers and storms this afternoon in a corridor of
1.7" precipitable water air ahead of a cold front and 5H speed max
ejecting out of an upper trough over Illinois. Scattered convection,
some robust, will continue for a few more hours and then gradually
decrease in coverage and intensity mid-late evening. The cold front,
slicing through southwest Indiana and western Kentucky this
afternoon, is moving only very slowly as its parent low moves NNE
through Michigan`s lower peninsula. Showers will remain in the
forecast through the night in the eastern parts of central Kentucky
and southern Indiana ahead of the front.

With efficient rain producers moving roughly parallel to the front,
training storms may lead to minor local flooding issues in a few
spots, especially along and east of a Bowling Green - Bardstown -
Cynthiana line.

As winds go nearly calm tonight in a moist, stagnant lower
atmosphere tonight, some patchy fog may develop late. However, a low
stratus deck is expected to form after midnight and continue into
Wednesday morning, limiting fog density and coverage.

Tomorrow the front will weaken as the Michigan low pulls away into
Canada. Instability will be significantly limited by widespread
clouds and scattered showers and the 5H shortwave trough will take
on a more positive tilt. While showers and a few storms are still in
the forecast for tomorrow, with the best chances east of I-65,
strong or severe storms are not expected. Will go with high
temperatures in the middle and upper 70s, which is slightly cooler
than the model consensus given the widespread overcast and some weak
cold air advection behind the surface front.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Overall high confidence in abundant rainfall late this week, but
quite a bit less confidence with regard to exactly where, when, and
how much.

Upper low slowly digging southward from near New Madrid to Memphis
Wed night and Thu is a favorable setup for a predecessor rainfall
event (PRE) especially as the SSE flow aloft phases with the flow
around Helene, which will still be in the Gulf of Mexico at that
time. Will ramp up rain chances during the day on Thursday, but at
this point it appears the better focus for heavy precip will remain
south of Kentucky through Thu evening.

During Thursday night the two cyclones begin to Fujiwhara around
each other, with the upper low being drawn southward into Louisiana
as Helene advances through Georgia. Deep east-southeast flow will
draw copious moisture into the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys, with the
best window of opportunity for widespread and heavy rainfall from
late Thu night through Fri evening. Minor/nuisance flooding is
possible with the heavier intervals of rain, especially if there is
an initial round of heavy rain associated with the non-tropical low.
Wind fields could also support a SVR threat, but that remains quite
uncertain at this time. Sfc winds will get a little breezy as the
low-level center of circulation drifts into the Ohio Valley, with
speeds at 15-25 mph and a few 30 mph gusts likely.

Confidence trends down again on Saturday as the two lows eventually
merge. Rain chances will continue through the weekend, with some
potential for more focused training of showers and storms that could
result in localized flash flooding if parts of the area are getting
repeated heavy rainfall.

Rainfall totals by the time all is said and done will generally run
2-4 inches, with localized 5+ inch amounts possible. Short-fuse
flooding is likely during or just after the heaviest rain, but long-
fuse river flooding would require us to hit the high end of the
range of rainfall forecasts.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 126 PM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Scattered showers and storms have begun to develop and will continue
through the remainder of the afternoon ahead of an approaching
cold front. Strength and coverage of storms will gradually decrease
this evening. However, the cold front will move slowly, and will
hang around long enough to continue shower chances overnight and
into tomorrow morning, especially at LEX/RGA.

Low level moisture and light winds tonight will lead to the
development of low stratus, which will last into the morning hours.
Though fog will be limited by these low ceilings, some reduction in
visibility will be possible in the humid, stagnant near-surface air.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...RAS
AVIATION...13