Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY
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147 FXUS63 KLMK 200538 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 138 AM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... * Mainly dry and hot weather through Sunday with highs each day near or above 90 degrees. Patchy fog possible in the AM. && .UPDATE... Issued at 849 PM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024 After afternoon highs in the low 90s, clear skies have allowed temperatures to cool into the low 80s at this hour. Temperatures will continue to fall through the overnight, reaching lows in the low-mid 60s. Some fog is expected to develop in river valley areas and the southeast portion of our region. Current forecast remains on track. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 255 PM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024 Hot and quiet weather continues in the short term as strong upper ridging dominates the pattern. High temperatures this afternoon are still expected in the upper 80s and low 90s with light and variable winds and a healthy diurnal cu field. Look for a mostly clear and quiet overnight with some fog concerns in spots. River valleys and our SE CWA will be the most likely candidates for visibility restrictions. Same upper pattern for Friday with low level thicknesses supportive of another degree or so rise in temps. Dew points will remain in check, so not worried about overall heat indices. However, still pretty hot for this time of year as we get about 10-12 degrees above normal values. && .LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 255 PM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024 Friday Night - Sunday Night... Looking for a continued hot and mostly dry weekend as a strong upper ridge centered near the Rio Grande River Valley extends influence to the NE over our area. With H85 temps near 20C and plenty of opportunities for solar insolation, temps look to range in the upper 80s and low 90s each day. As mentioned before, overall heat indices will be held in check due to dew points mainly in the low and mid 60s. A very weak and moisture starved frontal boundary extending from a northern Manitoba surface low will work into our area early Saturday morning. This feature could bring a stray shower or sprinkle to our northern CWA, but overall most of the moisture looks to be above 500 mb with drier air in place in the lower levels. Not worth mentioning any measurable pops at this time for that feature, however if anyone saw a light shower, it would likely be north of I-64 Sat morning. By later Sunday, central CONUS troughing will impinge on the upper ridge into our area, with more moisture possibly able to make it into our northern CWA. Perhaps some isolated shower or storm chances reach into our NW CWA by Sunday/Sunday night but confidence isn`t real high. Not much of a focus for any real coverage, and our antecedent dry airmass in place lowers confidence even more. Sunday will be another hot day with highs in the upper 80s and low 90s. A bit more cloud cover (across northern CWA) than previous days, so this may keep temps a degree or two cooler than Saturday up there. Monday - Thursday... The upper ridge axis slides east through early next week, with either SW or WSW flow aloft overspreading our area ahead of a shortwave trough over the north central CONUS. This system seems to have a decent amount of Pacific moisture with it, along with some forcing ahead of the upper trough axis. Looks like enough ingredients to at least warrant some scattered shower/storm coverage through early to mid week. The front doesn`t make a whole lot of progress eastward, and could lead to a bit more prolonged period of at least some chance for rain each day. Right now, Tuesday looks to carry the best chances, but overall pretty low confidence for the Monday - Wednesday timeframe. Cooler temperatures do arrive by mid week with highs back in the low to mid 80s under the upper troughiness. May have a tropical system coming out of the Gulf to watch for late week, but confidence very low in whether that would have any impacts over our area. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 131 AM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024 VFR conditions expected through the valid TAF period. Even BWG should remain unrestricted overnight as temp/dewpoint spread is wider than last night, and temp is not expected to cross over the afternoon dewpoint. Light winds will settle into a WSW direction by late morning, but speeds remain below 10 kt, and we`ll decouple just after sunset. Other than a few high-based diurnal cu, skies remain clear. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for KYZ029>031. IN...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for INZ077>079- 090>092. && $$ UPDATE...SRM SHORT TERM...BJS LONG TERM...BJS AVIATION...RAS