Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY
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411 FXUS63 KLMK 160746 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 346 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... * Dry and warm conditions expected across the region Monday. * Chances for rain (<30%) possible around midweek for areas along and east of I-75; otherwise, mostly dry and warm through next weekend. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 346 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Early morning satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies across much of southern Indiana and central Kentucky. Lingering cloudiness was noted across western Kentucky where the remnants of tropical cyclone Francine continue to slowly spin down. Temperatures across the region were in the upper 50s and lower 60s. The exception was far western KY where cloud cover was keeping temperatures in the lower 70s. For the remainder of the overnight hours, no significant weather is expected. Overnight lows will cool several more degrees with most locations seeing upper 50s and lower 60s for lows. For today, surface high pressure will continue to be centered over the northeastern US. A surface area of low pressure off the Carolina coast will attempt to attain tropical characteristics as it moves inland across the Carolinas. Some high clouds from that system may spill over into far eastern KY, perhaps as far west as the I-75 corridor. A dry day is expected across the region with afternoon highs in the mid-upper 80s west of the I-65 corridor. Lower 80s will be found east of I-65. Depending on how much cloud cover advects westward, highs out east of I-75 may only reach the upper 70s to around 80. Winds are expected to become somewhat gusty this afternoon as good mixing in the PBL takes place. The extent of mixing may be offset with mid-high level clouds streaming into our eastern areas. Overall wind gusts of 18-24 mph will be possible east of I-65. For tonight, skies will start off clear to partly cloudy across the region. Mid-high level clouds from the Carolina tropical system will expand westward perhaps to the I-65 corridor or so. Overnight lows will be in the upper 50s to the very low 60s. Tropical showers associated with the Carolina system may work into portions of eastern KY late tonight. For now will introduce a slight chance PoP in areas east of I-75 toward dawn Tuesday. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 346 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 The focus for the start of the long term remains the potential development of tropical cyclone eight off the coast of the Carolinas. There remains plenty of discrepancies between the models when it comes to the overall details but the trend remains that it will impact our far eastern counties (location along and east of the I-75 corridor) with much needed rainfall. Depending on the model, we could see precipitation as early as Monday night/Tuesday per the GFS/NAM or it could be late as Tues Night into Wed per the EURO. As was mentioned in the previous discussion, The suite of NBM ensembles show about a 30-50% chance of measurable precipitation (greater or equal to 0.01") with those chances dropping off dramatically as you work towards I-65 to around 10-20%. It will really come down to the development of the system over the next 24 hours, and how it interacts with the Appalachians as well as the upper ridge over New England and associated sfc high pressure that is over the region. All of these features could have some limiting impacts on how far west this system gets through midweek. Current forecast is advertising around 0.10" to 0.30" of rainfall with some models as high as a half inch. The upper low that has been impacting the region and creating the Rex Blocking pattern over the weekend will meander across the Ohio Valley and the Mid-Atlantic through about Thursday before it shifts eastward over New England by the end of the week. Ridging over Texas will build northeast towards the Great Lakes for the end of the week into the weekend. This will develop another Rex Block as the aforementioned upper-low retrogrades westward for the weekend. Outside of the potential rain chance Tues and Wed the rest of the forecast is pretty stagnant and unchanged. Highs Tues and Wed have a large spread over the CWA due to cloud cover to the east and sunshine to the west. Where there is more cloud cover highs will range from the mid 70s to the east with upper 70s to near 80 close to I-65. As you go west of I-65, highs will be in the low/mid 80s due to more sunshine. Thursday to the weekend will see a return to dry and sunshine. Highs will be warmer than normal compared to mid Sept normals with daily highs in the mid/upper 80s to near 90 towards the weekend with lows generally near 60 each morning. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1258 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 High pressure to the north of the region will continue to provide mostly clear skies and VFR conditions for much of the forecast period. Winds overnight will remain light from the east. During the daytime hours, look for winds to increase a bit as we get some good mixing. Wind gusts this afternoon at KSDF may reach 14-18kts while KLEX may see gusts of 18-22kts. We expect winds to diminish b early evening. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...MJ LONG TERM....BTN AVIATION.....MJ