048
FXUS66 KLOX 100020
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
520 PM PDT Sun Jun 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...09/120 PM.

Warmer temperatures are expected Monday through Wednesday as
onshore flow weakens in response to higher pressure moving into
the area. Most of the warming will be felt away from the coastal
areas where low clouds and fog will continue. After a brief
cooling trend Thursday widespread warmer temperatures are expected
Friday through next weekend with some gusty north winds at times.

&&

.SHORT TERM (SUN-WED)...09/142 PM.

A weak upper low continues to plague the area, resulting in a deep
and slow clearing marine layer south of Pt Conception and another
morning of drizzle. However, models continue to advertise the
upper low shifting to the southwest tonight and Monday and
Tuesday. We`re seeing signs of this today as gradients have been
trending weaker and the entire Central Coast has cleared out. As
the low pinches off and moves southwest tonight into Monday
onshore flow is expected to weaken further while warmer air aloft
lowers the marine layer depth to about half what it was this
morning. With these trends it`s unlikely (though not impossible)
that drizzle will repeat again Monday morning. Low clouds should
clear earlier and daytime highs will be warmer, especially
inland.

Tuesday expected to be the warmest of this mini heat wave with far
interior areas like the Antelope Valley getting into the lower
100s (though not as warm as last week) and warmer coastal valleys
near 90. Forecast highs were trimmed slightly as offshore trends
have lightened the last few runs but still enough for warming in
most areas. Still expecting low clouds and fog for coastal areas
but clearing earlier.

Models currently showing onshore flow increasing again Wednesday,
however, this may be a little premature as the a majority of the
ensembles show the upper low not starting to move back towards the
coast until early Thursday. So it`s possible that forecast highs
on Wednesday are too cool, especially inland.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...09/157 PM.

Cooler weather on tap Thursday as the upper low moves across the
area from southwest to northeast. The low has very little moisture
associated with it so not expecting any afternoon showers or
storms in the mountains, but some increase in cumulus clouds there
is a good bet. Marine layer will be deepening as the lows treks
through, possibly enough for some more morning drizzle for
coast/valley areas.

A significant warming trend is expected Friday and Saturday as
heights rise and the air mass warms following the departure of the
upper low. At the same time onshore flow to the east weakens and
actually turns offshore to the north by around 3mb. The GFS is
showing around 50kt of north to northwest winds near and west of
Pt Conception, and 25-40 kt over the western Santa Ynez Range.
Will have to monitor this situation closely through the week as
these conditions could create some fire weather concerns.
Elsewhere, warmer valleys are expected to reach the 90s and
inland coastal areas expected to be in the mid 70s to lower 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...10/0019Z.

At 23Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 2700 ft deep. The top of the
inversion was at 6000 ft with a temperature of 19 degrees C.

High confidence in KPMD and KWJF.

Low confidence in other TAFs except moderate confidence at KPRB
where there is a 30-40 percent chance of brief IFR conds between
12-16Z. Flight category changes may be off by 3 hours and one
flight category. There is a 5-10 percent chance that VFR
conditions prevail, highest for KSBP and KSMX.

KLAX...Low confidence in 00Z TAF. There is a 10-20 percent chance
of IFR to low MVFR cigs as early as 02-04Z. No significant
easterly wind component is expected.

KBUR...Low confidence in 00Z TAF.

&&

.MARINE...09/1205 PM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current
forecast. For tonight, there is a 60-80% chance of Small Craft
Advisory (SCA) level winds. For Monday through Thursday, high
confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. On
Friday, there is a 50-70% chance of both SCA level winds and seas.
For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. There is a 50-60% chance of SCA
level winds this afternoon and evening. For Monday through
Thursday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA
levels. For Friday, there is a 40-50% chance of SCA level winds in
the afternoon and evening hours.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. For the western half of the Santa
Barbara Channel, there is a 30-40% chance of SCA level winds this
evening. Otherwise, high confidence in winds and seas remaining
below SCA levels through Friday for the Inner Waters south of
Point Conception.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PDT this evening
      for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Monday for
      zones 670-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 AM PDT Monday for zone
      673. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...Munroe
MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...MW

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox