197
FXUS66 KLOX 251022
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
322 AM PDT Tue Jun 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...25/227 AM.

A gradual cooling trend will continue through midweek as high
pressure weakens over the area and onshore flow strengthens. Night
through morning low clouds and fog will slowly return to the
coastal areas. Temperatures will likely rebound next weekend as
high pressure builds back into the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-THU)...25/306 AM.

Three fairly unexciting weather days on tap for the southland
starting today. The area will be under the western edge of a large
upper high over srn NM. An upper low will scoot through the PAC NW
Wed and Thu its energy will push the upper high to the SE while
turning the anti-cyclonic flow to a weakly cyclonic one. Hgts will
be the highest today around 592 dam. By Thursday hgts will be down
to about 590 dam. Strong onshore flow to the east and moderate
onshore flow to the north (peaking in the afternoon) will continue
for all three days.

Residual humidity and partly cloudy skies wrapping around the
upper high this morning have prevented the formation of any marine
layer clouds. The partly cloudy skies will advect away to the
north in the morning leaving sunny skies for the afternoon. The
flow does not turn to the SW fast enough to totally eliminate the
threat of mtn convection in the afternoon but the chc is less than
10 percent which is too low to mention in the fcst. The onshore
flow will bring 4 to 8 degrees of cooling to the coasts and vlys.
The interior will see little or no cooling and heat
advisories/warnings are in place for the interior of SLO/SBA
counties as well as the Antelope Vly. See the product LAXNPWLOX
for details. This will be the last day of the heat products as
there will be enough cooling tomorrow to bring temperatures down
to below advisory thresholds.

Look for two days of cooling with an gradual increase in the night
through morning low clouds. Since hgts are still quite high the
marine layer will be smooshed to below 1000 feet and will only
cover the coasts and the lowest vlys. Lowering hgts and a better
developed marine layer along with the strong onshore flow will
bring 2 to 4 degrees of cooling each day. By Thursday the coasts
and vlys will be 1 to 3 degrees blo normal (vly highs from 80-90)
and the interior will be near normal.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...25/321 AM.

The cooling trend peaks on Friday especially across SLO and SBA
counties. Max temps will end up 3-6 degrees blo normal. The marine
layer stratus will be well developed and may push further into the
vlys. Some beaches may not clear at all. The strong onshore flow
will bring near advisory level west winds the Antelope Vly and its
foothills. In addition strong NW winds across the outer waters
will filter through SW SBA and may produce advisory level gusts
across the western portion of the SBA south coast.

High pressure begins to reassert itself over the weekend. Max
temps will rise 1 to 3 degrees Sat and 2 to 5 degree on Sunday.
The marine layer will shrink a little. Breezy west to northwest
winds will continue, peaking each afternoon and evening,
potentially nearing advisory levels for southwest Santa Barbara
County at times.

Not much mdl agreement on the fcst for next Monday. About 50
percent of the ensembles favor further warming with a growing
upper high while the other half bring in troffing and cooler
temps. No threat of monsoon convection so no real impacts no
matter the outcome.

&&

.AVIATION...25/0223Z.

At 23Z over KLAX, the marine layer depth was 800 feet deep at KLAX.
The top of the inversion was near 2400 feet with a temperature
near 27 degrees Celsius.

Moderate confidence in the current forecast. VFR conditions are
expected through the period, except for a moderate-to-high chance
of LIFR to IFR conditions between 08Z and 16Z for coastal
terminals. There is a very slight to slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms, highest for terminals north of Point Conception.

KLAX...There is a less than 10 percent chance of thunderstorms
through 12Z. There is a 60 percent chance of IFR conditions
as early as 09Z, or as late as 16Z. Otherwise, VFR conditions are
expected.

KBUR...There is a less than 10 percent chance of thunderstorms
through 12Z. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected.

&&

.MARINE...24/950 PM.

Dense fog with visibilities under one mile will remain a concern,
and while the coverage and shrunk a lot, expect some random
patches tonight into Tuesday.

There is a 30 percent chance of Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level
wind gusts Tuesday evening/night for the Outer Waters (offshore
waters of the Central Coast to San Nicolas Island). Northwest
winds will increase Wednesday afternoon through Thursday night.
High confidence in SCA level winds and steep seas for the Outer
Waters, with a 20 percent chance of reaching low-end Gale Force.
50 percent chance for SCA winds and seas for the nearshore Central
Coast waters, and a 20 percent chance for the western Santa
Barbara Channel. Winds start to decrease to SCA levels for Friday
into the weekend.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Heat Advisory remains in effect until 8 PM PDT this evening
      for zones 38-344-345-353. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Excessive Heat Warning remains in effect until 8 PM PDT this
      evening for zones 382-383. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Rorke
AVIATION...Hall
MARINE...Phillips/RK
SYNOPSIS...30

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox