621
FXUS66 KLOX 130009
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
509 PM PDT Sat Jul 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...12/948 AM.

Night through morning low clouds and patchy fog will affect the
coasts and lower valleys into next week. Max temperatures will
cool today and will end up several degrees below normal. There
will be continued cooling through the middle of next week with
valley highs on Tuesday only in the 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-TUE)...12/242 PM.

Very minimal day to day changes are expected in the short term. A
594 dam high will hang out over the region for the next few days,
though any warming affect that it typically would have will be
limited thanks to the moderate to strong onshore flow each day.
The LAX-DAG (easterly) gradient, will be around 9mb each
afternoon, while the LAX-BFL (northerly) gradient will be around
6 mb each afternoon.

Max temperatures each day through Monday will mostly be in the
60s-70s across the coasts, with 80s and lower 90s in the valleys.
These max temps are mostly 3 to 6 degrees below normal for this
time of year. The Antelope Valley, however, will continue near
100 degrees each day (5 degrees above normal), as it is mainly
free from the cooling marine influence. As for Tuesday, the high
pressure starts to break down, and a few degrees of cooling will
result across the region.

With how strong the onshore gradients are, coupled with a strong
inversion overtop, night through morning clouds each day will be
slow to burn off, and may not even clear from west facing beaches.
Otherwise, clouds will come flying back in during the late
afternoon/early evening timeframe.

Lastly the strong north push will bring gusty winds to the
interior each afternoon and evening, especially the western
Antelope Valley and foothills. Wind speeds will be close to
advisory levels but likely just under with a few of the typical
gusty locations seeing gusts to 45 mph.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...12/246 PM.

The strong onshore flow will continue through Thursday, and may
even become a mb stronger, before starting to weaken thursday
night through Friday. Conditions on Wednesday and Thursday will
be very similar, with temps not changing much from Tuesday. The
night through morning low clouds and fog will continue unabated
and the beaches will continue to struggle with clearing.

The strong onshore flow will continue to bring gusty (likely
advisory level) winds to some of the mountains as well as the
western portions of the Antelope Valley and foothills.
Additionally, the gusty winds across the mountains and interior
along with fairly warm temperatures and fairly low humidities
through Tuesday, will bring an uptick in fire weather danger.

Thursday evening, both the GFS and EC and show a significant
increase in moisture at 700 mb and above advecting in from the
SSE. Additionally, a portion of ensemble members from the GFS and
EC are showing PWATs of 0.8 to 1.1 at KPMD, starting Thursday
evening through Sunday. Skies may turn partly cloudy. As of now,
there is a 5 to 10 percent chance for high based monsoonal
thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours Thursday
through Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...13/0008Z.

At 2310Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1500 ft deep. The top of
the inversion was at 3700 feet with a max temperature of 25 C.

High confidence in VFR conditions for KWJF and KPMD.

Moderate confidence in remaining TAFs. Time of the return of cigs
this evening for sites may be off by +/- 2 hours, and heights may
be off by 1 flight category at times. Dense fog with VSBY
1/4SM-1/2SM will be possible (20% chance) from 08Z-15Z at KSBP,
KSMX, and KSBA. At KPRB, there is a 15% chance for LIFR to IFR
conds from 12Z to 17Z.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. Clearing and arrival times for
cigs may be off by +/- 2 hours, and heights may range from
400-2000 ft overnight. No significant east wind component
expected.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. Clearing and arrival times for
cigs may be off by +/- 2 hours, and heights may range from
400-1200 ft overnight.

&&

.MARINE...12/148 PM.

Localized Small Craft Advisory (SCA) W to NW winds may impact the
waters from near Point Conception south to the western Channel
Islands, and in southern Inner Waters from nearshore Point Mugu to
Pacific Palisades and into the San Pedro Channel Sunday afternoon
and evening. Otherwise, relatively benign conditions will
continue through at least the middle of next week.

Night to morning patchy dense fog is possible through at least
Monday.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Lund
AVIATION...Schoenfeld
MARINE...Lewis
SYNOPSIS...30

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox