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000
FXUS66 KLOX 072038
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
138 PM PDT Wed Jun 7 2023

.SYNOPSIS...07/137 PM.

A cooler and unsettled weather pattern will continue today as a
low pressure system slow exits the region through the day. Strong
onshore flow in place across the area will keep a cooler air mass
in place into early next week, along with extensive low cloud
cover and possible drizzle during the night to morning hours.
Another low pressure system moving over the region will bring the
possibility of mainly mountain showers and thunderstorms over the
weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT)...07/112 PM.

The upper low that brought showers and thunderstorms to the area
yesterday has shifted to the northeast of LA County. Meanwhile,
drier air has advected into the area from the northwest, making it
more difficult for storms to develop. Some showers and storms that
were over the San Joaquin Valley this morning have mostly
dissipated, and stability parameters are definitely weaker than
yesterday. Will leave in a small chance (10-15%) of a
thunderstorm through today, mainly over Ventura County. Similar
low chances of storms again tomorrow, again mainly in the Ventura
mountains. Stability parameters are a little better but PW`s are
decreasing so there`s a much higher chance of no storms.

Elsewhere, just lots of marine layer clouds with some thinning in
spots allowing a hint of sunshine to get through. Despite the
clouds temperatures are trending slightly warmer across the coast
and valleys. With very weak high pressure moving in Thu/Fri
temperatures may edge upward another degree or two, however, a
relatively deep marine is expected to continue for the next
several days so most areas will remain several degrees below
normal.

Another upper low will be approaching the area Saturday.
Increasing divergence aloft due to the low being just off the
coast along with a slight increase in PW`s and instability is
enough to at least warrant a slight chance of mountain showers
and thunderstorms in the afternoon. For all other areas, the main
impact of the low will be continued June gloom, below normal
temperatures, possible morning drizzle.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...07/136 PM.

The upper low is expected to remain in the area Sunday keeping
temperatures on the cool side and a 10-20 percent chance afternoon
thunderstorms over the mountains. Ensembles continue to suggest
a cooler than normal pattern next week with weak troughing over
California. However, there are indications of at least a slight
warming trend Tuesday or Wednesday as onshore flow weakens in
response to pressure rises across the interior as the low moves
east.

Beyond that most ensemble solutions are supporting a slightly
warmer period for the end of next week with earlier marine layer
clearing. However, there is another upper low over the eastern
Pacific late next week and there are some solutions maintaining a
deeper trough along the West Coast.

&&

.AVIATION...07/2030Z.

At 1530Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 4800 ft deep. The top of
the inversion was 5700 feet with a temperature of 5 degrees C.

Moderate confidence in the TAF package due to uncertainty in the
clearing of CIGs through the period. Clearing may occur up to 2
hour earlier than forecasted.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in the TAF, due to uncertainty to the
timing of afternoon clearing, there is a 20% chance of no
clearing. No significant easterly wind component is expected.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in the TAF, due to uncertainty in the
timing of clearing, and the return of CIGs late tonight.

&&

.MARINE...07/126 PM.

High confidence in current forecast with winds and seas expected
to remain below Small Craft Advisory levels for all the coastal
waters through Saturday. Patchy dense fog is expected overnight
through at least Sunday.

&&

.BEACHES...07/127 PM.

A south swell of 2 to 4 feet with a 16 second period will impact
south facing beaches through tomorrow. Surf of 3 to 5 feet is
expected on south facing beaches, with locally higher sets to 6
feet possible.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...Schoenfeld
MARINE...Schoenfeld
BEACHES...Sirard
SYNOPSIS...Hall

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox