142
FXUS66 KLOX 151805 AAA
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
1105 AM PDT Mon Jun 15 2026

.SYNOPSIS...15/235 AM.

Seasonal June conditions will continue through the first half of
this week as at least weak to moderate onshore flow continues,
with night through morning low clouds and fog across most coastal
areas. Near to slightly above normal temperatures will continue
through Tuesday, with minor afternoon heat impacts, before
cooling down in the second half of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-WED)...15/822 AM.

***UPDATE***

The Vandenberg sounding this morning observed a marine layer
a few hundred feet deeper than yesterday and morning visible
satellite shows the low stratus and fog was a little more
expansive this morning, with a few pockets of dense fog. Low
clouds also progressed up the Salinas Valley again and reached
Paso Robles.

Forecast is still on track for a minor increase in temperatures
today (+1-3 degrees) with the higher pressure aloft. Warming will
expand the potential for heat impacts, and potential advisory
headlines will be monitored for a few interior valley locations,
like the San Fernando Valley.

***From previous discussion***

Slight offshore trends and enhanced ridging aloft will bring a
few degrees of warming today into Tuesday with the potential for
moderate heat impacts to expand for warmer coastal valleys to the
interior. Although above normal temperatures will increase heat
stress during the day for those interior areas, good cooling
trends in the evening and especially overnight should limit
overall impacts and therefore the need for heat products. However,
those sensitive to the heat may want to consider avoiding peak
heat of the day and hydrate often. The marine layer will continue
to protect coastal areas from the heat with highs only in the 70s
to near 80 including inland coastal sections of LA County with
limited day-to-day changes through Wednesday.

Through Tuesday ridging and offshore trends will likely lead to
earlier burn off of low clouds and fog, except for possibly some
west facing beaches of Los Angeles and Ventura County. Low clouds
will struggle to penetrate into coastal valleys and fog will may
become more common where low clouds do occur albeit with limited
concern for dense fog given continued onshore flow and only weak
ridging/height rises aloft.

A slow-developing trough offshore over the East Pacific begin
building into the region by Wednesday, will initiate moderate
cooling trends away from the coast, reducing heat risk even to
warmer interior areas. Night-to-morning low clouds may begin to
expand further into the coastal valleys by Wednesday morning.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...15/500 AM.

A slow-developing trough over the East Pacific will become more
organized and should build into the region by the end of the
week, and carry a cooling trend into next weekend, with the most
notable cooling away from the coast. This will significantly
reduce heat risk even to warmer interior areas and latest guidance
has afternoon high temperatures up to 5-10 degrees below normal.
Night to morning low clouds will likely push further into the
coastal valleys and possibly some lower foothills as southwest
strengthens. There will also be increased odds for some drizzle
within the marine layer each morning.

The associated onshore push will support gusty onshore to
northwest winds nearing advisory levels for the interior,
possibly extending to southwest Santa Barbara. There may be a
period of enhanced fire weather concern on one or both of those
transition days (Wed-Fri) for far interior areas and maybe
especially at high elevations, which would be situated above the
expanding marine layer influence.

Looking further out, there`s a 50-60 percent chance of above
normal temperatures returning and perhaps becoming more widespread
during the early-to-middle part of next week as a ridge
potentially builds into the region from the east.

&&

.AVIATION...15/1804Z.

At 18Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1000 ft deep. The top of the
inversion was near 3000 ft with a temperature of 24 C.

High confidence in KBUR KVNY KPMD & KWJF.

Low to moderate confidence in remaining TAFs. Timing of CIG/VSBY
restrictions may be off 3 hours and flight minimums by one
category. There remains a low 10-20 percent chance of brief to no
return to VFR for KOXR KSBA.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. VFR conditions return between
19-21Z. No significant east wind component expected.

KBUR...High confidence in TAF.

&&

.MARINE...13/821 PM.

Moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Conditions are
generally expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory (SCA)
levels across the coastal waters through the forecast period.

Local gusts could reach 21 kts during the afternoon and evening
timeframe across the western Santa Barbara Channel, Santa Monica
Basin, and nearshore Los Angeles Harbor into the San Pedro Channel.

Patchy dense fog with visibility 1 NM or less is possible each
night to morning through at least Monday.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement in effect through late Wednesday
      night for zones 349-350-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     Coastal Flood Advisory in effect until 2 AM PDT Tuesday for
      zone 362. (See LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Munroe/SB
AVIATION...Munroe/Batz
MARINE...Black/Ciliberti
SYNOPSIS...SB/CC

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox