Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA

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000
FXUS66 KLOX 180027
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
427 PM PST Fri Nov 17 2017

.SYNOPSIS...

Breezy offshore winds may occur from late Friday into Saturday
along with a warming trend over the weekend. Temperatures are
forecast to dip on Monday, then a significant warming trend will
take from Tuesday through Thanksgiving Day.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TDY-MON)

A building ridge over California and most of the western third of
the US will be the dominant weather feature the next several
days. We`ll get a quick burst of Santa Ana winds Saturday which
will pump the temps up several degrees at lower elevations and
generate local advisory level northeast winds across parts of
LA/Ventura counties. Gradients will relax Sunday but the ridge
will continue to build and temps in most areas should rise a
couple degrees from Saturday, especially inland.

A cold dry air mass across the interior along with light winds
will allow overnight temperatures to drop to near or below
freezing the next couple nights. The coldest temps will in the
Antelope Valley Sunday morning where mid 20s are possible and a
hard freeze watch has been posted. For tonight temps are expected
to remain mostly in the upper 20s and 30s and the freeze watch for
the AV has been converted to a freeze warning. For interior SLO
valleys a frost advisory is in effect tonight for temps mostly
just above freezing and a freeze watch for Sunday morning.

On Monday the ridge remains in place but some moisture from a
storm well to the north will manage to get through and increase
clouds across the area, especially north of Pt Conception. There`s
too much subsidence for any precip so rain chances have been
removed, but there will still be a fair amount of clouds,
especially up north. And temps Monday will be similar to Sunday.

.LONG TERM...(TUE-FRI)

The ridge will build even stronger Tue and peaking Wed and
Thanksgiving. Gradients will trend offshore again and peak
Thursday but just enough for some locally gusty but sub-advisory
level Santa Ana winds. Temps will make a noticeable jump Wed into
the mid to high 80s for many LA/Ventura valleys and some coastal
areas as well. Slightly cooler up north but still well above
normal. Perhaps even a few isolated lower 90s on Thanksgiving day.
Cooler but still warm and dry going into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...18/0024Z.

At 00Z, there was a weak marine inversion based around 800 feet
deep at KLAX. The top of the inversion was located around 1550
feet with a temperature near 16 degrees Celsius.

VFR conditions are expected throughout the period, except for a
chance of sub-VFR conditions at KPRB and Los Angeles County
Coastal terminals. Periods of moderate wind shear and turbulence
are possible at Ventura and Western Los Angeles County terminals
after 06Z.

KLAX...There is a 40 percent chance of IFR to MVFR conditions
between 06Z and 16Z. Any east winds will remain less than 10
knots.

KBUR...VFR conditions are expected throughout the period. There
is a 20 percent chance of moderate wind shear and turbulence after
06Z.

&&

.MARINE...17/145 PM.

Hi confidence in the current forecast. Small Craft Advisory (SCA)
level winds will continue over the northern outer water zones
(PZZ670 and PZZ673) through this evening. The next round of SCA
winds will affect the two southern outer waters zones (PZZ673 and
PZZ676) for Sun thru Mon night, with a 50-60 percent chance of
this occurring.

Local SCA winds can be expected for the inner waters zone from
Point Piedras Blancas to Point Sal (PZZ645) through this evening,
as well as for the east Santa Barbara Channel (PZZ650). There is
a 30 percent chance of SCA winds across the inner waters from
Ventura to Malibu and out to Anacapa Island late tonight and Sat
morning as well due to gusty offshore winds. Otherwise, SCA
conditions are not expected for the inner waters through Wed.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Frost Advisory in effect from midnight tonight to 8 AM PST
      Saturday for zones 37-38. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Freeze Watch in effect from late Saturday night through
      Sunday morning for zones 37-38. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Freeze Warning in effect from midnight tonight to 8 AM PST
      Saturday for zone 59. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Hard Freeze Watch in effect from late Saturday night through
      Sunday morning for zone 59. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PST this evening
      for zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

.HAZARD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK...(MON-FRI)

No significant hazards expected.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...Hall
MARINE...Sirard
SYNOPSIS...Hall/Stu

weather.gov/losangeles



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