062
FXUS64 KLUB 051126
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
626 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 229 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Triple digit heat goes on hiatus today following last evening`s
modest cold front. Surface high pressure currently in southern
Nebraska is forecast to slide into eastern Oklahoma by this evening
while keeping moist upslope winds across our forecast area. Despite
this improved low-level moisture, hefty inhibition aloft and cooler
highs today will keep surface parcels capped. Northwest flow aloft
with some passing mid and high clouds dries out tonight as H5 height
rises jump 60 meters in 24 hours ahead of an upper high settling
over New Mexico after midnight.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 229 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Upper ridging will move more squarely overhead Thursday bringing a
return of triple digit heat to most of the region which will last
through the first half of the weekend. Thursday will also feature
a return of thunderstorm chances as a slow-moving front drifts
southward through the Texas Panhandle. Guidance is in fairly good
agreement depicting scattered storm development over the southern
TX Panhandle Thursday afternoon as the front intersects a modest
midlevel theta-e ridge. Given the hot surface temperatures,
minimal capping and enough instability will likely be present for
these storms to persist through sunset as they drift southward
within the weak northerly flow aloft. Have therefore boosted PoPs
above NBM Thursday afternoon and evening more in line with hi-
res consensus. A bit more inhibition will be present on Friday as
the center of the upper ridge axis translates eastward, but a
shortwave disturbance atop the ridge may bring a few storms to the
southern TX Panhandle once again Friday evening, with a repeat
performance of scattered evening storms possible again on Saturday
as the ridge begins to flatten. Sunday into early next week, the
ridge will retreat even further south as deep cyclonic flow aloft
overspreads much of the eastern CONUS. This evolution will result
in a better-defined and more prolonged period of northwest flow
aloft locally, which favors higher storm chances each evening from
Sunday through Tuesday as upstream convection over the NM/CO high
terrain translates southeastward over our area. Temperatures will
also return to values near or just below average Sunday through
the middle of next week as layer thicknesses decrease considerably
with the deamplification of the upper ridge.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 625 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Continued VFR with mostly light NE winds this morning veering E this
afternoon.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...93