777
FXUS64 KLUB 080811
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
311 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 311 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

The upper high has won the battle with tonight`s convection with
storm outflow failing to develop/sustain convection as it moves into
our northern zones. Convection that has developed behind outflow
across the Texas Panhandle has decayed to light showers.

Today and tonight will be nearly a wash, rinse, and repeat of
yesterday. The main difference is the center of the upper high
will settle over the GOMEX by this afternoon. Another upper
shortwave is progged to push across the Central Plains by the
afternoon with convection developing along a weak surface boundary
across Colorado/Kansas. Convection is expected to push southward
following storm outflow with storms possibly making it to our
northern zones. Storms should have another LLJ to help sustain
themselves, and there should be less subsidence aloft to kill
convection and prevent further development. The one continued
problem for sustaining convection is the lack of steering flow
aloft which makes convection rely on the outflow boundary for
forward propagation. This will limit the southward extent of
convection. Despite the upper high being further southeast, highs
today will still be near 100 degrees F this afternoon as
thicknesses have little change.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 311 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Our pattern turns more unsettled beginning late Sunday and extends
into early next week until a sprawling upper ridge resumes its
control of the region. Sunday begins with a cold front drifting
south across the TX Panhandle underneath a NW-SE ridge. The front
is likely to stall and bisect the CWA during the day as it
encounters deep mixing all the while post-frontal pressure rises
decay. The net result will be widespread, moist easterly upslope
flow and cooler temps, although convective prospects look more
iffy during the afternoon as frontal convergence diminishes.
Farther west in E-SE New Mexico, low-level forcing looks best
near a triple point with ample upslope forcing. PoPs were groomed
to reflect storms developing in eastern NM during the afternoon
and spreading slowly east by the evening and overnight under weak
westerly steering flow. Models agree in convection thriving and
growing upscale into an MCS by Sunday evening as it encounters a
zonal theta-e axis with rich PWATs running 150-180 percent of
normal. Add to this slow storm motions and the stage is becoming
set for a potentially widespread heavy rainfall event.

Additional precip chances for Monday are not as clear as the region
will likely start with a cool/stable mesohigh in the wake of the
MCS and residual cloud debris that will all serve to keep highs
below normal. Aloft meanwhile, the upper ridge will have eroded
and opened the door to an upper low (currently near Baja
California) to draw closer from northern New Mexico in NW flow.
Improved flow aloft may bolster the threat for organized severe
storms provided enough heating and lift are realized. As this low
crawls across the TX Panhandle on Tuesday, one final round of
storms is in the offing for parts of the region before strong
height rises deliver hot and dry conditions by mid/late week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1208 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

VFR conditions will prevail. Rain showers with embedded
thunderstorms may affect CDS within the next two hours, but no
significant issues are expected.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...51
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...51