046
FXUS64 KLUB 192002
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
302 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 249 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

The forecast area remains positioned under a mid/upper level ridge
axis sandwiched between a notable inverted easterly wave/tropical
system over the western Gulf of Mexico and an area of broad cyclonic
flow aloft over most of the western CONUS. At the surface, an
outflow boundary from morning convection over the TX Panhandle was
positioned roughly along a line from Tucumcari NM to just north of
Lubbock to Lawton OK. Models have handled this feature poorly
thus far and the boundary has made steady southward progress through
the day, but it now appears to be slowing and will likely stall
somewhere across or just south of our forecast area by this evening.
As broad midlevel subsidence beneath the ridging aloft becomes more
pronounced, the shallow cellular convection along and ahead of the
outflow boundary earlier today is expected to quickly diminish with
time through the rest of this afternoon. Most of the region is
currently expected to remain dry through tonight, with the exception
being the far SW TX Panhandle and western portions of the South
Plains where convection off the NM high terrain may approach within
weak southwesterly flow aloft. This is looking less likely than
prior forecasts given the magnitude of subsidence east of the
TX/NM state line, but will maintain mentionable PoPs over the SW
Panhandle given the lingering presence of the boundary and
stronger low level flow in this area.

Tonight, inverted upper troughing associated with the Gulf tropical
system will begin shifting westward while an impressive plume of
deep layer moisture pivots over our region. Substantial low level
theta-e advection within continued southeast flow may result in a
resurgence of isolated showers late this evening along and east of
I-27, but this signal is still not strong enough to introduce shower
mention and will therefore keep PoPs silent in this area for the
time being. Better chances for showers and thunderstorms will
hold off until late Thursday morning through Thursday afternoon with
guidance in good agreement depicting a series of vorticity maxima
shifting overhead during the daytime hours. Overall, marginal
forcing is expected to keep coverage of showers and storms scattered
at best with highest PoPs generally west of I-27 and along the TX/NM
state line. The heavy rain potential appears limited as
forecast soundings depict meager instability with MUCAPEs likely
less than 500 J/kg. However, PWATs of 1.5 to nearly 2 inches may
support brief downpours within any stronger convective cores which
do manage to develop but overall most locations are expected to
only see rainfall totals of one tenth of an inch or less.
Precipitation will decrease in coverage from east to west Thursday
evening with dry conditions returning by early Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 249 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Main theme for the long term forecast is the return of warmer
weather as upper-level ridging dominates our forecast through next
week. The center of the ridge will be located near the Tennessee
Valley on Friday but as the moisture associated with the tropical
system moves out of our area, more sunshine will help to warm
temperatures to near 90 degrees across the Rolling Plains and far
southeast Texas Panhandle with mid to upper 80s across the rest of
the area. The ridge will retrograde back across the forecast area
this weekend allowing for even sunnier skies and a gradual warm up
in temperatures back into the 90s area wide. Center of the ridge
will end up west of the forecast area early next week however with
thickness values continuing to increase high temperatures will also
continue to warm into next week with upper 90s to lower 100s being
prevalent once again for much of next week. This pattern will place
us within northwest flow aloft so there is a slight chance for some
evening/overnight precipitation to move from the higher terrain of
northeast New Mexico into the far southern Texas Panhandle however
confidence on this activity actually making it into our forecast
area remains low at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Broken MVFR CIGs are expected to continue at LBB and PVW for a few
more hours before scattering out and eventually returning to VFR
by late this afternoon. East winds will also remain gusty through
the afternoon hours before gradually weakening and veering more
southeasterly this evening. Forecast confidence decreases
significantly tonight into Thursday with a return of potentially
widespread MVFR CIGs and SHRA/TS possible by daybreak Thursday as
moisture once again increases across the region. For now,
confidence is much too low to include specific TAF mention of
anything besides VFR and will refine this potential in later
forecasts.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....58
AVIATION...30