147
FXUS64 KLUB 181110
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
610 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 201 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

The heat will be large and in charge as a low-amplitude, shortwave
ridge shifts over the southern Great Plains today. Boundary-layer
mixing heights will soar into the mid-levels as superadiabatic lapse
rates within the surface-to-3-km layer evolve by the early afternoon
hours. A lee cyclone was analyzed in east-central Colorado this
morning, and will rotate southward into West Texas by mid-day
beneath the apex of the ridge where a diffuse dryline expected to
anchor along the edge of the Caprock Escarpment. Winds will be light
and variable as the cyclone rotates into the CWA this afternoon with
temperatures soaring into the middle-upper 90s area-wide. The
dryline will then translate westward tonight beneath the approach of
a broad, synoptic-scale trough emerging from the western U.S., and
winds will back to the south and southeast as the corresponding
surface low retrogrades into eastern New Mexico amidst cool-to-mild
temperatures.

Sincavage

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 201 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

No significant changes to the long term portion of the forecast
period. Hot and dry conditions this weekend will transition to a
brief spell of near-normal temperatures Wednesday and Thursday
before retuning to more heat next weekend. Despite upper level
ridging shifting to the east of the forecast area, west-southwest
flow aloft and hot air off the deck advecting in from the Mexican
Plateau will support upper 90s to near 100 degrees Sunday and
Monday. An upper level short wave trough moving across the southern
High Plains on Tuesday will bring slightly cooler temperatures while
a cold front late Tuesday night/early Wednesday will bring
temperatures back close to normal for a day or two. The only
somewhat meaningful chance for thunderstorms will come Thursday
across the eastern third of the forecast where low level moist
advection will supply the necessary fuel should a low-amplitude
upper trough be able to erode or overcome convective inhibition.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 610 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

VFR next 24 hours. Southerly winds will shift to the west at KLBB
later this morning while becoming variable at KPVW as a weak
surface low moves into the South Plains area. Winds will then
transition to the southeast this evening at all terminals. Hot
temperatures are expected today with thermal turbulence developing
this afternoon. Check density altitude.

Sincavage

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...09