Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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353 FXUS64 KLUB 171727 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1227 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 226 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Better chances for isolated thunderstorms will exist this afternoon but coverage is expected to be very limited. Overall, forcing for ascent will be fairly weak with a strong cap to erode before convection will be able to initiate. Several weak short waves were noted in the southwest flow aloft across Arizona and New Mexico early this morning. Furthermore, a weak jet streak on the order of 60kt was observed along the Arizona/New Mexico border. This jet streak will continue to move east and slide more to the south by late this afternoon. Models do agree we will see some forcing from this feature near the Texas/New Mexico state line into the Permian Basin. Surface cyclogenesis will develop in northeastern Colorado in response to a strong short wave trough moving across the Intermountain West. A dryline will mix eastward through the day but will not likely make it far beyond the Texas/New Mexico state line given the position of the surface low. Low level convergence will increase along the dryline supplementing the weak larger scale lift from the upper jet/short wave trough. Convective initiation will be dependent on whether a cap will weaken enough to allow it. A notable elevated mixed layer was evident in model soundings as well as the KAMA raob (no raob was available from KMAF). Temperatures at 700mb will be roughly around +16 to +17C today in close vicinity to the dryline. Deep boundary layer mixing will occur today with very warm temperatures expected. Model convective temperatures are in the mid-90s which is what we have forecast for this afternoon. Most models generally have CIN eroding to less than -20 very late this afternoon, close to 23 to 00Z. An axis of high theta-e air will exist on the caprock and when combined with the steep mid-level lapse rates, yields between 2000 and 3000 J/kg of mixed layer instability. Deep layer shear will be increasing through the day as the aforementioned upper level jet streak approaches the area. Therefore, isolated storms will be possible late this afternoon with some chance of storm organization into supercellular structures. A dry sub-cloud layer will support a severe wind threat with a lesser threat for large hail. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 226 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Generally quiet conditions will be in store for Tuesday. Although it will still be muggy with dewpoints in the mid 60s during the day, there are no notable forcing parameters and thus no mentionable PoPs in the current forecast. A cold front will move through the area on Wednesday. Resultant surface winds switching to east-southeasterly will bring a relief from the recent warmer temperatures, with highs only expected to reach the mid 80s. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible in the afternoon/evening. Forecast confidence significantly declines thereafter as a Gulf low approaches the mainland. There is a clear difference between the North American and foreign deterministic model solutions. In general the GFS/NAM/GEM bring widespread moderate-to-heavy precipitation farther north and faster than the ECMWF/UKMET. NBM is still trying to get a handle on all this with the Grand Ensemble currently giving about a 20-30% chance of greater than 0.25" of rain across the CWA. If the surface low remains closed, this would bring a higher likelihood for a more southern track of the heaviest rain. Stay tuned for updates. What is slightly more certain are much cooler temperatures Thursday and Friday. As expected the farther south models are warmer, however even if the heaviest (or any) rain does not make it very far north, there should be widespread cloud cover over the CWA and highs may struggle to get out of the 70s. No matter where it sets up, the fire hose of Gulf moisture looks to weaken into Friday. Nothing exciting at this time jumps out with the upper level flow next weekend, which would mean generally quiet weather and temperatures rebounding to near normal, however given the aforementioned model disparities, things could certainly chance between now and then. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1226 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 VFR conditions are expected to prevail through this afternoon and evening. Breezy winds should continue throughout the period, with the occasional 30kt wind gust possible at all terminals. This evening, there is a slight chance for thunderstorms, some potentially severe, to develop along the TX/NM state line and move toward PVW and LBB into the overnight hours. However, confidence is too low to include a mention in the TAF at this time. Towards sunrise, stratus should move into the CWA from the southeast, producing MVFR conditions at all terminals through mid-morning Tuesday. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...01 LONG TERM....19 AVIATION...DF