Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 030422

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1022 PM CST Sat Mar 2 2024

...New AVIATION...

(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 217 PM CST Sat Mar 2 2024

Our very mild start to the month rolls through the weekend
underneath deep W-SW flow. Surface troughing to our east is
maintaining very dry westerly winds with sustained speeds around 30
mph at times in Parmer County. A lesser wind max is found farther
southwest in the lee of the Guadalupes where despite ample cirrus
and cooler temps, deep mixing has already produced gusts to 35 mph
at Hobbs. This split in low-level wind maxima will remain with us on
Sunday, yet trend weaker as the base of an upper trough currently
near the Grand Canyon lifts northeast tonight and into the Dakotas
by Sunday morning. Little change in thicknesses means another day of
highs in the 80s for many, although wind speeds should dial a bit
lower particularly over the South Plains in between the two low-
level wind cores discussed earlier. Expect even milder lows tonight
as SW winds hold between 10 and 15 mph.


(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 217 PM CST Sat Mar 2 2024

The overall synoptic pattern will not vary too much during the
beginning of the upcoming week as a broad zone of cyclonic flow
aloft remains anchored over the Canadian Prairies and the PacNW.
This will result in continuing dry WSW flow aloft over our area
which will in turn maintain a stretch of mild and relatively quiet
weather during the Mon-Wed period. Still, it will be a bit cooler
than this weekend as a weak cold front over the central plains
states attempts to drift southward. There is good consensus that
this front will remain to our north on Monday before finally
advancing southward and washing out over our area on Tuesday. Highs
in the upper 60s to low 70s still look good Mon-Wed, but may need to
be lowered a tad Tuesday if the frontal push is more robust than

The forecast becomes a bit more uncertain Wednesday night
through Thursday as a complicated flow regime evolves over the
western CONUS. In general, models are in good agreement depicting
two distinct shortwaves shifting eastward within a broadening
longwave trough axis, which favors moist return flow over eastern
and central TX as flow aloft becomes more southwesterly. The setup
still does not look overly favorable for widespread precip over West
Texas, but enough uncertainty is still present in the track of the
upper shortwaves and enough spread still exists in ensemble
solutions to maintain low PoPs mainly east of I-27 Wednesday night
through Thursday. A few isolated thunderstorms would be possible if
precip does materialize, but we still expect most locations to
remain dry at this time. A stronger cold front is then likely to
bring cooler temperatures and perhaps some additional rain showers
back to the region Friday into next weekend.


(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1019 PM CST Sat Mar 2 2024

Southwest winds near 15 kts will continue through the TAF period.
A 45-50 kt low level jet will bring the potential for wind shear
through early Sunday morning. VFR will persist.


Issued at 217 PM CST Sat Mar 2 2024

The most critical fire weather conditions continue this afternoon in
the far southern Texas Panhandle where RFTIs have been holding
between 5 and 7. Weaker winds across the southwest South Plains
along with thicker high clouds should keep fire concerns here
relatively lower, yet still enough to warrant keeping the Red Flag
Warning intact particularly given frequent gusts of 20 to 30 mph and
low RHs. A similar theme should play out on Sunday, although with a
bit less wind from the South Plains into the far southeast TX
Panhandle. Still, very warm and even drier SW winds of 15 to 25 mph
justify critical fire weather conditions area wide on Sunday.


Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 7 PM CST Sunday for TXZ021>044.



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