Area Forecast Discussion
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961
FXUS64 KLUB 181133 AAA
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
533 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2020

.AVIATION...
LLWS will continue at CDS for a few more hours this morning before
upper level winds gradually decline. VFR conditions will persist
through the day today with surface winds gradually veering
through this evening. /WCI

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 340 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2020/

DISCUSSION...
A cold front has pushed into the northern Texas Panhandle and will
continue to move south through the day, eventually clearing the
southern counties shortly after mid-day. Highs will be about 10
degrees cooler across the Caprock but about 10 degrees warmer than
yesterday across the Rolling Plains where skies will be clear
through the day and sunshine will offset the cold air advection.
Cool airmass will remain in place for Sunday and modify a bit on
Monday as a weak shortwave trough moves overhead Monday night.

Models continue to show increasing precipitation coverage Tuesday
morning ahead of the first in a series of troughs that will move
across the region through the week. GFS remains the fastest with
the first wave bringing an end to precipitation by Tuesday night
while the ECMWF holds on to precipitation into Wednesday
afternoon. There should be a lull in precipitation once the first
trough axis moves overhead, likely sometime Wednesday before the
next trough starts to approach. Precipitation type will also be
tricky as models show a few pockets of low temperatures at or just
below freezing with a weak warm nose above that. Still too early
to pinpoint precipitation type but will likely see another round
of mixed precip around sunrise Wednesday IF any areas are able to
drop below freezing with warm southerly surface flow in place.

Forecast for the middle through end of the week remains very
uncertain as the ECMWF remains more progressive with a second wave
deepening across the Rockies then swinging southeast across the
forecast area overnight Wednesday into early Thursday morning.
This brings another chance at widespread light precipitation for
the entire forecast area through Thursday afternoon followed by a
weak cold front. The GFS is now almost a full 24 hours behind the
ECMWF and continues to deepen this trough much faster into
Thursday night. If the GFS verifies, precipitation chances are
much lower, will have a shorter window, and we could potentially
see wind advisory-level conditions Thursday night into Friday
morning as the deepening mid-level closed low over northern
Oklahoma creates a strong pressure gradient at the surface. NBM
still seems to have a good balance on things but it did throw in
low end slight chance PoPs for Friday and Saturday as both the
ECMWF and GFS have another shortwave trough crossing the region.
Moisture may be lacking for this system however and kept PoPs out
of the forecast for next weekend. Temperatures may climb a bit
above normal for next weekend as well depending on how the active
synoptic patter decides to shake out.

Jordan

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

58/14



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