909
FXUS64 KLUB 131111
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
611 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024

Drier and warmer conditions can be expected today despite a cold
front moving through the area. This cold front was currently moving
southward across the region which will scour out low level moisture
and low stratus. Winds at 850mb around 20-30kt will be able to
quickly mix down to the surface after sunrise after stratus clears.
Therefore, surface winds will increase shortly after sunrise and
will generally relax through the afternoon as the pressure gradient
lessens. Despite the cold front, temperatures will warm today closer
to seasonal averages under mostly clear skies with increased
thickness values.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024

Upper ridging will bring dry conditions and above average
temperatures on Tuesday, with highs reaching near 90 across much of
the South Plains region. A series of shortwave troughs along with
increased shear and instability from daytime heating on Wednesday
all suggest the potential for severe weather. While some
uncertainty remains regarding the exact timing/placement of any
storms, recent model/ensemble runs suggest perhaps a slightly
later start time into Wednesday evening. As such, greatest chances
would occur off the Caprock where the best shear/forcing would
exist at that time. The latest PoP forecast reflects this
thinking. Nonetheless, general storm chances remain for much of
the forecast area from late afternoon onwards with a favorable
upper pattern.

An upper low over the Four Corners region will track southeastward
on Thursday. SE surface winds behind a cold front will also bring in
ample Gulf moisture to the region (GFS PWATs of 1.5 inches off the
Caprock Thursday afternoon). As such, another round of severe
weather is possible Thursday afternoon/evening although shear
parameters look slightly weaker than Wednesday. A broad upper ridge
will quickly displace the low on Friday bringing a return to hot and
dry conditions. Combined with strengthening southwesterly winds,
highs this weekend are expected well into the 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 609 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024

The last of the IFR CIGS/visbys were exiting the terminals as of
this writing. VFR is then expected for the remainder of the TAF
period with breezy north winds today.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...01