Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 182324

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
624 PM CDT Sat Aug 18 2018

VFR conditions are expected at all three terminal for the next 24
hours. After 06Z rain showers and thunderstorms are expected
across the area. Thus, have added VCSH to TAFs. Sunday, a cold
front will shift winds to the north.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 259 PM CDT Sat Aug 18 2018/

A short wave currently over the intermountain west will continue to
drive the weather over the next day or two. In the meantime, little
activity is expected for the rest of the afternoon. Morning and
early afternoon convection has kept the atmosphere fairly stable.
The best chances will be from convection moving in from southeastern
New Mexico later this afternoon or early evening.

The aforementioned short wave will initially translate into a
developing MCS this evening. An MCS will likely develop along the
front range of Colorado into northeastern New Mexico and move to the
east-southeast. As this complex rolls out, the best chances locally
will continue to be in the extreme southeastern Texas Panhandle with
more widely scattered convection on the South Plains. Mixed layer
instability will increase in more northerly latitudes with higher
low level theta-e air. The same short wave will drive a cold front
through on Sunday but may not be until late on Sunday evening.
Overnight convection will initially push an outflow boundary leaving
much of the region with north-northeasterly winds all day. The
exception may be over the Rolling Plains where the boundary may
stall out and we could see enough surface convergence to initiate
convection during the afternoon hours. Convective chances will
spread more to the south as the eventual cold front moves through
late in the evening. This front will advect in much drier air
keeping precipitation chances minimal for Monday.

There is still some degrees of difference in an upper level ridge
placement for next week. In general, the ECMWF has an upper level
ridge building back close to overhead which will lead to warmer
temperatures and dry conditions. The latest GFS and GEFS solutions
do show the ridge closer than older runs but still places it just to
the west of the region in New Mexico. This would allow for at least
a small possibility for nighttime storms to make it into the extreme
southern Texas Panhandle.




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