Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 201902

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
202 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2019

Subtropical moisture plume continues spreading across the region,
resulting in unusually high PWATs, which will peak at over 2
inches by later this afternoon. Any surface based convection will
have the potential of becoming severe, and also produce heavy
rainfall that may cause flooding issues. As of 2 PM, storms have
begun to intensify and spread across our region.Two impulses,
associated with a Pacific Low currently approaching the Four
Corners region, will influence our weather for most of the
weekend, before exiting to the north and east by late Sunday.

As noted by the SPC, a remnant outflow boundary stretching across
the South Plains into western Oklahoma will be the surface
mechanism for convection to initiate this afternoon and evening.
We`re currently in the Marginal Risk area outlined by the SPC for
the remainder of today and tonight. Convergence at the surface
generated by surface pressure falls across SE NM will feed storms
from SW to NE across our CWA while also reinforcing an outflow
boundary derived from last nights storm activity, which produced
over 9 inches of rain at the Claude West Texas Mesonet site.
Severe wind, hail and tornadoes are possible with the strongest
storms, though the heavy rainfall may ultimately have the biggest
impact. The WPC has our entire CWA in a Marginal Risk for
excessive rainfall today, with the SE Texas Panhandle and northern
Rolling Plains in a Slight Risk. Upper level flow becomes
slightly confluent later this evening in the wake of the first
upper level impulse rounding the base of the Pacific trough today
and tonight. This may help limit the severe potential only
slightly for the South Plains, especially the hail size and
tornado potential. Heavy rain will still be an issue wherever
storms get going, especially in the Childress area. The pattern
for tomorrow is very similar, though the flooding risk may lessen
somewhat, as storms become more transient under the sharpening
trough that begins to lift north later in the day.

By Sunday morning the trough axis shifts east and PWATS drop
sharply, with chance POPS persisting through much of the day,
especially across the Rolling Plains off the Caprock. Shortwave
ridging develops for the beginning of the new work week, but the
next trough is on our doorstop to the west by late Monday,
bringing the potential for another round of showers and storms
beginning Late Monday night that may persist through early




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