Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 150449

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1049 PM CST Sat Dec 14 2019

A period of MVFR ceilings not out of the question at KCDS Sunday
morning mainly between 12Z and 18Z behind a weak cold front.
Otherwise, VFR conditions are the most likely outcome through the
TAF period.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 252 PM CST Sat Dec 14 2019/

Tonight will remain mostly quiet as we remain under zonal flow
aloft. Zonal flow will begin to give way to an upper shortwave
trough that will be near the Four Corners region by tomorrow
evening. A cold front will being to push into the region ahead of
the trough tomorrow afternoon. Models continue to remain consistent
with the front stalling across our northern and eastern zones
tomorrow before pushing through the rest of the FA during the
overnight hours as the shortwave approaches the region. The front is
still expected to be dry minus some cloud cover. Monday will be
noticably cooler with highs in the upper 30s to mid 40s. Surface
high pressure will set in overhead Monday night allowing temps to
drop into the teens and 20s Tuesday morning. A ridge across the Four
Corners region will keep FA under northern flow aloft into Wednesday
thus making temps slow to warm. The aforementioned ridge will
quickly push east of the FA by Wednesday evening as another upper
disturbance moves across the southwestern US. The GFS and ECMWF
differ on the evolution of the disturbance. The ECMWF keeps the
disturbance further south as a close low with the center of the low
moving overhead early Friday. The GFS has more of an elongated open
wave that then transitions to a closed low late Thursday over the
central Plains. While both solutions are dry they differ on he
timing of the following cold front. The ECMWF, being slower, pushes
the front through Friday morning/afternoon while the GFS has the
front through as early as Thursday evening. Regardless of which
solution wins both models have ridging moving into the region behind
the disturbance and dominates through the weekend.




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