Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 181708

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1108 AM CST Tue Dec 18 2018


VFR will continue for the next 24 hours. Light scattered showers
are still possible this afternoon. Light southerly winds will
shift to the north 10-15 kts behind a cold front late tomorrow


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 258 AM CST Tue Dec 18 2018/

Models are a touch more aggressive with precipitation chances for
this afternoon and evening. The best chances off the caprock and
over the Rolling Plains has not changed with the latest runs. A
compact closed off low will move overhead this afternoon giving rise
to some lift moving across West Texas. An upper level jet streak
will be draped from southern Texas through southeastern Texas but
will provide some weak lift brushing the Rolling Plains. A fetch of
mid level moisture will continue to stream overhead ahead of today`s
short wave leading to mid and high level cloudiness. The best lower
level moisture will be off the caprock with much drier low level air
on the caprock. We have added a mention of sprinkles for most areas
on the caprock for this afternoon.

Another system will emerge from the central Rockies on Wednesday
sending an initial cold frontal surge through on Wednesday
afternoon. Stronger surface ridging will push in overnight Wednesday
along with more impressive surface pressure rises. Fortunately, the
upper level wind maximums will move overhead during the overnight
hours which will keep wind potential low. The height gradient will
still be strong enough Thursday morning to bring up winds through
the early afternoon. A quick return to surface lee troughing will
take place on Friday as a weaker short wave tracks across the
central Rockies. This will send another cold front through on
Saturday lowering Sunday temperatures back to near seasonal




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