Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 242035

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
335 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2019

Very little change in the forecast as guidance remains
inconsistent with mesoscale details within the synoptic pattern
over our area. We`ll see seasonal temperatures the next couple of
days as zonal upper level flow begins to amplify, with ridging
over the west by late Tuesday. A trough associated with the polar
jet will stall over the southern Rockies by early Thursday before
a closed low pushes onshore over the Pacific Northwest and quickly
weakens. Remnant energy embedded in the trough will eventually
split and dive south for the weekend tracking over our area. The
upper level split flow pattern appears to weaken as it tracks
west and south of our CWA, before reorganizing over south-central
Texas early next week.

As the ridge builds and surface features respond tomorrow and
Tuesday, the light easterly flow on the backside of surface high
pressure centered in the Central Plains will advect enough
moisture up onto the Caprock to justify a mention of patchy fog
for early tomorrow and Tuesday morning. Unfortunately, that
moisture will be shallow, and the signal for any precipitation in
the middle of the upcoming week has lowered from previous
forecasts, so dropped POPS below mentionable levels. The GFS has
shifted a dryline feature farther east for later this week, into
north and central Texas, with the updated ECMWF following suit. A
cold front will push south late Friday into early Saturday
cooling us down approx 15 degrees area wide from Fridays seasonal
levels to begin next weekend. The cooler and drier airmass, after
a second push late Saturday, will drop most of us into the 50s
for highs on Sunday with cloudy skies too.




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