160
FXUS64 KLUB 270814
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
314 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 309 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024

Backdoor cold front is moving through Lubbock as of 1:30 am and will
clear our forecast area by 6 am. This is switching winds around to
the east behind it and bringing in some higher surface moisture into
the forecast area. Despite having a cold front go through the area
today, high temperatures will remain above normal in the mid to
upper 90s thanks to increasing heights aloft as a ridge builds into
the Great Basin. Surface troughing will strengthen across eastern
New Mexico this afternoon which may lead to an area of convergence
near the I-27 corridor as winds across the western South Plains
become westerly. While surface moisture will be on the increase the
highest dewpoints are expected to remain south and east of our
forecast area. However, with a tongue of higher 850-700 mb theta-e
moving across the Rolling Plains and into the far southern Texas
Panhandle some guidance continues to indicate the potential for
shower/thunderstorm development along the convergence zone. If
something were to develop, a deeply mixed boundary layer combined
with LCLs near the freezing level would support the potential for a
few strong to severe wind gusts. Theta-e advection will increase
overnight but again deep layer moisture will continue to be lacking
so at this time have maintained a dry forecast. If better deep layer
moisture arrives across the Rolling Plains overnight then there is a
threat for strong to severe thunderstorms as MLCAPE values of around
4000 J/kg will be present along with 40 kts of deep layer shear. Low-
level moisture will continue to stream into the forecast area
overnight which will keep our low temperatures several degrees
warmer than this morning with temperatures in the upper 50s to mid
60s across the forecast area. Low clouds may also blossom across the
forecast area around sunrise tomorrow morning. /WI

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 309 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024

A very active weather pattern is in store for the South Plains
region this week. The upper level ridge is expected to hold overhead
through the week while weak shortwaves/disturbances in the flow
aloft will lead to increasing thunderstorm chances through the long-
term period.
Temperatures on Tuesday will be slightly cooler
than previous, as a surface high pressure system to our east and a
surface low to our west influences southeasterly flow over the
FA. These southeasterly winds at the surface will work to advect
moisture in from the Gulf of Mexico in addition to southerly flow
at the mid-levels will allow for increased moisture with model
guidance hinting at a 700 mb theta- e ridge extending from the
Gulf of Mexico into the South Plains region. Thunderstorm chances
increase Tuesday afternoon as a disturbance in the flow aloft
tracks into the region. The dryline is expected to be positioned
somewhere west of the I-27 corridor which will provide enough lift
for thunderstorms to develop. East of the dryline, strong to
severe thunderstorms may be possible. This will be dependent on if
diurnal heating is able to erode the capping inversion in place.
Some models suggest a reinforced boundary tracking southward may
even lead to earlier convection as it works to break the cap in
place. If and when the cap does break, an environment consisting
of MLCAPE up to 4500 J/kg, steep lapse rates, and shear above 40
knots will support isolated supercell development.
A similar environment will remain in place through Thursday with
ripples in the flow aloft expected and the dryline remaining
across the South Plains. However, there are a few uncertainties
regarding thunderstorm development each day. These being an
overworked environment from previous days convection and lingering
low-level stratus limiting diurnal heating. If thunderstorm were
to develop a similar environment compared to Tuesdays will support
strong to severe thunderstorms to develop. The upper level ridge
will begin its push eastward Thursday afternoon as an upper level
trough over the northern Intermountain West moves eastward. This
will allow a series of shortwave troughs to move in from the west.
Ensemble guidance continues to hint at the probability of
thunderstorms remaining through the end of the week into the
weekend with residual moisture still locked in place.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1232 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through this TAF period. A
weak cold front is dropping through the area this morning which is
switching winds around to the east but wind speeds will remain
below 15 kts.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...58
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...58