Area Forecast Discussion
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Issued by NWS
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160 FXUS64 KLUB 270814 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 314 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 309 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Backdoor cold front is moving through Lubbock as of 1:30 am and will clear our forecast area by 6 am. This is switching winds around to the east behind it and bringing in some higher surface moisture into the forecast area. Despite having a cold front go through the area today, high temperatures will remain above normal in the mid to upper 90s thanks to increasing heights aloft as a ridge builds into the Great Basin. Surface troughing will strengthen across eastern New Mexico this afternoon which may lead to an area of convergence near the I-27 corridor as winds across the western South Plains become westerly. While surface moisture will be on the increase the highest dewpoints are expected to remain south and east of our forecast area. However, with a tongue of higher 850-700 mb theta-e moving across the Rolling Plains and into the far southern Texas Panhandle some guidance continues to indicate the potential for shower/thunderstorm development along the convergence zone. If something were to develop, a deeply mixed boundary layer combined with LCLs near the freezing level would support the potential for a few strong to severe wind gusts. Theta-e advection will increase overnight but again deep layer moisture will continue to be lacking so at this time have maintained a dry forecast. If better deep layer moisture arrives across the Rolling Plains overnight then there is a threat for strong to severe thunderstorms as MLCAPE values of around 4000 J/kg will be present along with 40 kts of deep layer shear. Low- level moisture will continue to stream into the forecast area overnight which will keep our low temperatures several degrees warmer than this morning with temperatures in the upper 50s to mid 60s across the forecast area. Low clouds may also blossom across the forecast area around sunrise tomorrow morning. /WI && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 309 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 A very active weather pattern is in store for the South Plains region this week. The upper level ridge is expected to hold overhead through the week while weak shortwaves/disturbances in the flow aloft will lead to increasing thunderstorm chances through the long- term period. Temperatures on Tuesday will be slightly cooler than previous, as a surface high pressure system to our east and a surface low to our west influences southeasterly flow over the FA. These southeasterly winds at the surface will work to advect moisture in from the Gulf of Mexico in addition to southerly flow at the mid-levels will allow for increased moisture with model guidance hinting at a 700 mb theta- e ridge extending from the Gulf of Mexico into the South Plains region. Thunderstorm chances increase Tuesday afternoon as a disturbance in the flow aloft tracks into the region. The dryline is expected to be positioned somewhere west of the I-27 corridor which will provide enough lift for thunderstorms to develop. East of the dryline, strong to severe thunderstorms may be possible. This will be dependent on if diurnal heating is able to erode the capping inversion in place. Some models suggest a reinforced boundary tracking southward may even lead to earlier convection as it works to break the cap in place. If and when the cap does break, an environment consisting of MLCAPE up to 4500 J/kg, steep lapse rates, and shear above 40 knots will support isolated supercell development. A similar environment will remain in place through Thursday with ripples in the flow aloft expected and the dryline remaining across the South Plains. However, there are a few uncertainties regarding thunderstorm development each day. These being an overworked environment from previous days convection and lingering low-level stratus limiting diurnal heating. If thunderstorm were to develop a similar environment compared to Tuesdays will support strong to severe thunderstorms to develop. The upper level ridge will begin its push eastward Thursday afternoon as an upper level trough over the northern Intermountain West moves eastward. This will allow a series of shortwave troughs to move in from the west. Ensemble guidance continues to hint at the probability of thunderstorms remaining through the end of the week into the weekend with residual moisture still locked in place. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1232 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 VFR conditions are expected to prevail through this TAF period. A weak cold front is dropping through the area this morning which is switching winds around to the east but wind speeds will remain below 15 kts. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...58 LONG TERM....12 AVIATION...58