653
FXUS64 KLZK 091723 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1223 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday Night)
Issued at 407 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Sctd strong/few svr storms affected n-central and northeast AR
durg the overnight hrs. Early this mrng, most of the convection
was confined to southern MO into far northeast AR. Meanwhile, warm
and humid conds were noted elsewhere, with predawn temperatures
in the 70s.

The aforementioned convection was occurring along the periphery of
an upper lvl ridge that was centered along the Gulf Coastal region.
Showers/storms wl stay concentrated acrs northern AR this mrng. A
few storms could produce gusty winds and marginally severe hail,
along with locally heavy rainfall.

Elsewhere, dry conds are expected for the rest of the mrng, but
convective chcs wl incrs this aftn as a large scale upper trof apchs
fm the Plains. This scenario wl allow the upper rdg to weaken,
allowing a new CDFNT to drop into AR.

CAMS have been in good agreement with this trend, with the CDFNT
expected to push south of AR by Monday. Some of the stronger storms
later today into tngt wl have the potential to produce large hail
and damaging winds. However, model output conts to indc that the
bulk of the convection wl be elevated and primarily north of the
bndry.

Rain-cooled air and clouds wl hold daytime highs mainly in the
70s to near 80 in the north. Elsewhere, the mercury wl climb into
the mid 80s to the mid 90s. Resulting aftn heat indices wl reach
well into the 90s, with parts south AR briefly seeing values from
100 to 103 degrees. Highs on Mon wl actually be a few degrees
below normal, ranging fm the upper 70s to the mid 80s.

With the aforementioned CDFNT pushing south of AR on Mon, opted to
keep the fcst dry. However,  but some data suggest we could see some
precip linger in the south durg the mrng hrs. Otherwise, north and
northeast winds wl usher drier air into the region.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 407 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Broad sfc high pressure wl be in place acrs the OH River Valley and
greater Appalachia. Seasonal temps and lower humidity levels wl be
seen around the FA Tues, and into Wed, w/ high temps in the upper
70s to mid 80s at most locations.

By Wed, before broad sfc high pressure should begin to drift Ewrd,
w/ Srly sfc flow resuming over the Srn Plains. A subtle H500
shortwave/vorticity max is progged to maneuver thru weak upper
background flow, ejecting acrs the ARKLATEX region Wed aftn. For
now, low chc PoPs remain acrs Wrn to S/Wrn AR on Wed aftn.

Thru the remainder of the work week, shortwave H500 ridging is set
to build acrs the Central US and antecedent longwave troughing
recedes and drifts N/Ewrd. Intermittent low-chc diurnal PoPs wl be
seen by most, but otherwise, relatively dry condns are expected thru
the remainder of next week, w/ Srly flow driving incrsg temps and
humidity levels acrs the FA.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Cold front remains in place across NW AR early this afternoon with
mainly VFR conditions in place across the state. Expect TS
development from north-central AR into central parts of the state
between 09/20z-10/06z which could impact area terminals. RA/TS
activity will persist and drift south tonight with activity
expected to diminish by 10/12z. The front will move south and
winds will be out of the N-NE Monday. Some reduced vsby/cigs are
possible tonight through daybreak Monday before conditions improve
through the end of the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     60  83  59  80 /  50   0   0   0
Camden AR         67  84  62  84 /  10  10   0  10
Harrison AR       56  80  57  79 /  40   0   0   0
Hot Springs AR    65  84  63  84 /  30  10   0  10
Little Rock   AR  66  84  65  83 /  40   0   0  10
Monticello AR     68  84  65  84 /  20  10   0  10
Mount Ida AR      65  83  62  83 /  30  10   0  10
Mountain Home AR  57  80  57  80 /  30   0   0   0
Newport AR        62  83  61  81 /  40   0   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     66  83  63  83 /  30  10   0  10
Russellville AR   65  85  63  84 /  40  10   0  10
Searcy AR         62  83  61  81 /  40   0   0   0
Stuttgart AR      66  83  64  81 /  40  10   0   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....72
AVIATION...67