006
FXUS64 KLZK 090545
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1245 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 116 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Outflow from morning convection moved south of I-40 this
morning...allowing for some convection to develop and persist into
the early afternoon hrs as far south as along or just south of the I-
40 corridor. This precip and cloud cover has kept temps from warming
much so far this afternoon across central to NRN AR...in the 70s to
low 80s. However...temps across SRN sections have warmed into the
upper 80s to low 90s due to more sunshine.

The ongoing convection has been slowly dissipating over the past
couple hrs...which should remain the trend into the afternoon hrs
with precip expected to end. Temps will rebound some across
NRN/central sections as a result...though likely several deg cooler
than originally forecast.

Mainly dry conditions are expected for most areas into this
evening...though new convection looks to develop across central/SRN
MO this evening...moving generally SE towards AR tonight. Most of
this activity should remain across NRN into NERN sections through
Sun morning...though more convection may fire again from any
outflows that drop south/SW Sun morning. As result...keep some POPs
in the forecast as far south as central sections once again for Sun
morning.

A new cold front will drop south into the state by Sun
afternoon...pushing south through the state Sun night into early
Mon. Keep chances for some convection with this FROPA through Sun
night and early Mon...but dry things out on Mon as the drier air
filters south into the state. Looks like the short term will end dry
as a result of this front moving well south of AR by late Mon
afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through next Saturday)
Issued at 116 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

To begin the period, NW flow aloft will be over the area.
Additionally, surface high pressure will be east of the state as a
low pressure system in the Central Plains tracks towards the Great
Lakes. This will bring the chance of showers and thunderstorms
across much of the state Wednesday as a slow moving cold front moves
through the area. High pressure is expected to build in behind the
front allowing southerly flow around the high pressure system to
supply moisture to the region. This could allow PoPs to remain
elevated the end of this week into next weekend.

As of this forecast package, severe weather is expected to remain on
the low side...but not zero. Should any severe weather materialize,
damaging winds would be the main threat. QPF amounts will depend on
where rainfall sets up and tracks. For the most part, QPF amounts
will remain on the low side with northwestern and western Arkansas
likely seeing the most. These areas could expect to see up to half
an inch through the period...with lesser amounts elsewhere.

Temperatures are expected to be in the upper 70s to lower 90s.
Overnight lows are expected to drop into the upper 50s to upper 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Sctd convection wl cont to affect mainly N AR into the early mrng
hrs. MVFR/IFR conds where the heavier activity occurs, along with
gusty winds. Additional convection is expected to form Sun aftn
over northern areas ahead of a slow moving CDFNT. This activity wl
eventually work into central AR later in the PD. Otherwise, VFR
conds wl cont.

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...62
LONG TERM....73
AVIATION...44