030
FXUS64 KLZK 071724
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1224 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday Night)
Issued at 349 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Quiet conds were noted acrs the Natural State early this mrng. A
weak fntl bndry was situated acrs central AR, with a slightly drier
airmass noted behind it. Predawn temps ranged fm the mid 60s to the
mid 70s.

The aforementioned fnt wl cont to drop southward thru the rest of
the FA today. Sfc high pressure wl build into AR behind the fnt,
allowing for another day of dry and warm conditions. Highs this aftn
wl range fm the mid 80s to the lower 90s.

The sfc high center wl quickly shift to the east of AR tngt and Sat,
thanks to a contd W/NW steering flow aloft. Guidance conts to
advertise abv normal high temps Sat aftn, thanks to an incrsg S/SW
sfc winds. The mercury is expected to top out in the mid 80s to the
mid 90s, with aftn heat indices in the 90s.

Meanwhile, a new CDFNT wl apch AR from MO late Sat and Sat ngt. Sctd
showers/storms wl return to the fcst, mainly acrs the northern
sections of the state. However, there is still quite a fcst uncertainty
regarding the eventual placement of the fnt heading into Sat ngt. This
wl also determine the extent for strong/severe storms over our area,
although atmospheric conds wl be favorable.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 349 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

The long term fcst wl be comprised of unsettled wx thru the early
portions of next week, w/ drier weather condns prevailing by mid to
late week. Mean H500 flow is progged to assume a N/Wrly pattern acrs
the Srn Cntrl US, as low-amplitude ridging develops over the Cont
Divide thru the weekend. 00Z solns of medium range guidance are
still uncertain on the evolution of a cdfrnt, set to move thru the
Plains sometime fm Sun night thru Mon night. Latest GFS soln depicts
a more progressive frnt, moving thru the region on Mon, while the
ECMWF is less aggressive, and depicts a backdoor frnt airmass change
later Mon night thru Tues. For now, blended guidance remains
indicative of a frnt moving thru w/ Nrly sfc winds overspreading the
region from Mon to Tues, and drier air filtering in w/ humidity
levels tapering down thru at least mid week next week.

W/ the aforementioned frnt set to move thru early next week, covg
and magnitude of PoPs wl incrs from Nrn to Srn AR, Sun thru Tues, w/
greatest chances expected Sun night into Mon. Scattered
thunderstorms are expected along the frnt as it moves thru, and
given some N/Wrly flow, some storms may become strong at times,
however, higher shear looks to stay displaced to the N/E of the
region, which should limit a more prominent severe wx threat.

In the wake of the frnt, drier air and lower humidity levels are
expected, w/ temperatures moderating to near-normal values at most
locations. Thurs and thru the remainder of the PD, temperatures and
humidity wl begin to increase again across the FA as Srly winds
resume in the wake of departing sfc high pressure.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the period. High clouds will
be possible later Friday afternoon into Saturday as a disturbance
begins to move in from the north. As of right now, SHRA looks more
likely across northern terminals Saturday morning. Confidence is
not as high for central and southern terminals on whether SHRA
will make it far enough south. Winds will be mostly light and out
of the E/SE through most of the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     67  90  71  86 /  10  20  10  30
Camden AR         67  94  71  94 /   0   0   0   0
Harrison AR       68  89  68  78 /  30  30  20  50
Hot Springs AR    68  94  71  92 /   0   0   0  10
Little Rock   AR  70  94  75  92 /   0   0   0  10
Monticello AR     67  94  73  94 /   0   0   0   0
Mount Ida AR      69  93  71  91 /   0  10   0  10
Mountain Home AR  67  89  69  79 /  30  30  20  50
Newport AR        67  90  73  88 /  10  10  10  30
Pine Bluff AR     68  94  73  93 /   0   0   0  10
Russellville AR   70  95  71  90 /  10  10   0  30
Searcy AR         65  91  72  89 /   0  10   0  20
Stuttgart AR      68  91  73  92 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....72
AVIATION...73