461
FXUS64 KLZK 150508
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1208 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 104 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Early afternoon visible satellite imagery showed a surface based
cumulus field developing over northwest Arkansas. Within this
cumulus field, looping the visible satellite imagery time series
shows subtle waves propagating through the field from northeast to
southwest indicating that the surface based cumulus has hit a
level of stable preventing vertical growth. At least in the very
short term (next couple of hours) this should prevent any rain
shower or isolated thunderstorm activity from developing. Surface
weather observations showed temperatures in the upper 80s to lower
90s across the state with dew point values at or around 70
degrees. This left heat index values in the 90s to 100 degrees for
most locations. In addition to the heat and relatively high
humidity, the winds were very light across the state making it
fairly unpleasant for outdoor activities this afternoon across the
state.

Aside from the heat which will only gradually increase this
afternoon and remain in place through Father`s Day weekend, models
that past couple of days have been hinting at the development of
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across northern
Arkansas this afternoon into early this evening. Those models were
firing this convection off of a weak surface boundary that is
supposed to be in place in this same area, however early afternoon
observations don`t show much of a boundary in place. It is
admittedly difficult to determine given the very weak wind field
in place, however gradients of temperature and humidity and their
thermodynamic brethren (e.g. Virtual Temperature, Equivalent
Potential Temperature, etc) were also quite subtle and difficult
to pick out any coherent surface based feature. Most convective
allowing model guidance has actually backed off on advertising any
precipitation in this area, but there are a couple of exceptions.
Kept a 10-20 percent rain chance across far northern Arkansas to
account for a subtle feature that I can`t find that the short
range high resolution guidance may be picking up on. Based on the
aforementioned appearance of the early afternoon cumulus field, no
convective development is imminent, but something to keep an eye
on through sunset.

Otherwise the synoptic pattern will be characterized by upper
level ridging intensifying but also moving off to the east through
the weekend. Most model guidance keeps a shortwave ridge axis
extended over Arkansas through the weekend which should keep rain
chances very low while keeping the heat and humidity dialed up. As
the ridge axis continues to move east into early next week, it
should at least allow for some additional cloud cover if not rain
chances to cause the heat to back off at least a tiny bit for the
week ahead.

Cavanaugh

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through next Friday)
Issued at 104 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

To begin in the upper levels, an expansive ridge should be situated
across the Srn Appalachians with SWrly flow positioned across the
nations mid-section. At the surface, high pressure should be well to
the E of AR with low pressure parked across the Nrn Plains.
Resultant low-level and upper level SWrly flow will advect moisture
latent warm air into the region between these features.

Sunday however will be rather hot under mostly sunny skies.
Temperatures should climb into the mid and upper 90s. When combining
humid conditions with hot temperatures, apparent Ts should range
from 100 to near 105 degrees. At this time, apparent Ts greater than
105 seem very spotty and localized, thus my thinking is readings
will fall just short of heat advisory headlines.

By Monday, a storm system currently over the Gulf of Mexico is
progged to lift Nwrd into the region by early to mid week. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are expected to accompany this feature,
which in turn should lower expected high temperatures over the next
several days by a few to several degrees. High temperatures beyond
Sunday should range from the mid 80s to lower 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1205 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Surface high pressure will continue over the area promoting calm
and dry conditions through the period. Widespread VFR conditions
are expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     92  72  95  73 /   0   0  10   0
Camden AR         95  67  98  73 /   0   0   0   0
Harrison AR       90  69  91  71 /  20   0  20   0
Hot Springs AR    97  70  97  73 /   0   0   0   0
Little Rock   AR  96  74  98  76 /   0   0   0   0
Monticello AR     95  70  98  75 /   0   0   0   0
Mount Ida AR      95  69  96  72 /   0   0   0   0
Mountain Home AR  93  70  92  72 /  20   0  20   0
Newport AR        99  73  96  75 /   0   0  10   0
Pine Bluff AR     97  71  98  75 /   0   0   0   0
Russellville AR   96  72  96  74 /   0   0  10   0
Searcy AR         96  72  97  73 /   0   0  10   0
Stuttgart AR      92  73  96  77 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cavanaugh
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...73