866
FXUS64 KLZK 161904
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
204 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 203 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Unsettled weather has continued for much of the day with overcast
skies and on and off precipitation moving across large portions of
the state. As a result, temperatures have warmed very little across
the state through the day with afternoon temperatures in northern
Arkansas struggling to get out of the 60`s. Southern Arkansas has
seen the best warming of the day with temperatures warming into the
lower 80`s. Needless to say, temperatures are well below normal for
this time of year.

This afternoon and evening rain showers will continue. While no
location will see a washout, some light rain will be seen. Expect
rain chances to finally come to an end during the overnight
hours...however patchy fog will be possible with the best chance for
heavy fog being mainly across northwest portions of the CWA.wrk

Models are in agreement that Tuesday will be a dry day except in
extreme southern Arkansas. Rain chances will linger across the
southern border of the state through much of the day on Tuesday.
Models continue to hint at an upper level ridge to build into the
region towards the start of the long term with temperatures forecast
to warm back to near normal levels or above.

&&


.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday Night through next Monday)
Issued at 203 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

90 degree weather will be back at the beginning of the extended
term, and although the 90 degree weather will give way to highs in
the 80`s after a few days, warm temperatures will prevail regardless.

The extended term beings with a narrow ridge across the central US,
built up between coastal trofs. With the ridge in place, 90 degree
weather will be back in place across the state.

By the weekend an upper low will begin to move up thru the four
corners region and lift over Missouri and into the upper midwest by
Monday. As the ridge weakens, daily highs will relax into the 80`s.

At the surface, a cold front will try to move into the northwest
part of the state over the late weekend into Monday. The models seem
content to stall out the front just outside the area, but this will
contribute to some rain chances starting on Saturday thru Monday,
primarily across the NW and northern portions of the forecast area.

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     63  86  61  86 /  10   0   0   0
Camden AR         67  85  65  89 /  20  10   0   0
Harrison AR       61  84  61  85 /  10   0   0   0
Hot Springs AR    67  88  65  90 /  20  10   0   0
Little Rock   AR  68  88  66  89 /  10   0   0   0
Monticello AR     68  87  66  89 /  20  10   0   0
Mount Ida AR      65  86  63  90 /  10  10   0   0
Mountain Home AR  63  86  61  85 /  10   0   0   0
Newport AR        64  85  60  84 /   0   0   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     66  86  63  88 /  10  10   0   0
Russellville AR   65  87  64  88 /  10   0   0   0
Searcy AR         65  88  62  87 /  10   0   0   0
Stuttgart AR      66  86  63  86 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM....53
AVIATION...65