495
FXUS64 KLZK 161100
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
600 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 244 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

The rinse and repeat pattern will remain in place today and into
tonight but guidance is continuing to show improving conditions for
Tuesday which carry into the long term period.

Moisture continues to rotate around the ill defined remnants of what
was Tropical System Francine. Latest radar imagery is showing mainly
light, to occasionally moderate showers over a large part of eastern
through northeastern Arkansas.

The remnants of Francine, which are actually more of a surface trough
than anything are stretched out roughly from north central Arkansas
through east central Mississippi. Guidance remains consistent in
keeping showers and maybe an isolated thunderstorm, in place for most
of the day before whats left moves south of the state tonight.

Even though the majority of the precipitation will be light, it will
be persistent with up to another half inch of rain expected through
tonight over eastern and central sections of the CWA and appreciably
less over the west. With widespread cloud cover in place and ongoing
rain chances, temperatures once again will struggle to get out of
the 70s.

Upper ridging begins to build back in for Tuesday with clearing
skies and warming temperatures. Highs look to be back in the 80s for
the majority of the CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 244 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

The middle of the week right up until the weekend will be defined by
fair weather conditions and temperatures with respect to both low
and high temperatures that will be slightly above average compared
to climatological normals. Statewide temperatures across Arkansas
will see the mercury surge into the mid 80s to low 90s for afternoon
high temperatures with morning low temperatures remaining mild in
the mid 60s to low 70s. This setup will be the result of stout upper
lvl ridging that models continue to agree will become more
pronounced starting in the middle of the week and lasting through
Friday.

Into the weekend, POP chances will gradually increase as an upper
lvl trof positioned over the Western region of the CONUS begins to
approached the state with a cold front that will be moving through
Oklahoma on Sunday. Temperatures will remain slightly above average
sticking near values mentioned above for both low and high
temperatures. However, POP chances will still be relatively low
across parts of western and northern Arkansas along with rainfall
totals or QPF that will not be a washout by any means for any
location that actually does see any precipitation at all.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 600 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

The remnants of tropical system Francine will once again meander
across the terminals before finally exiting this evening. Mainly
light precipitation is expected at most of the terminals along
with widespread IFR conditions. MVFR conditions may briefly return
at the southern and central TAF sites with both KHRO and KBPK
becoming VFR with time. Winds will continue from the northeast
around 5 to 10 knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     76  63  85  61 /  40  10   0   0
Camden AR         80  66  85  65 /  50  10  10   0
Harrison AR       75  61  84  60 /  40  10   0   0
Hot Springs AR    78  66  87  65 /  40  10   0   0
Little Rock   AR  79  67  87  66 /  40  10   0   0
Monticello AR     79  67  86  66 /  40  20  10   0
Mount Ida AR      79  64  86  62 /  40  10   0   0
Mountain Home AR  77  62  85  61 /  40  10   0   0
Newport AR        79  64  84  60 /  50  10   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     78  65  86  63 /  40  20   0   0
Russellville AR   77  65  86  63 /  40  10   0   0
Searcy AR         77  64  86  62 /  40  10   0   0
Stuttgart AR      78  66  85  63 /  50  10   0   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...56
LONG TERM....74
AVIATION...56