015
FXUS64 KLZK 201930
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
230 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

The upper level ridge over the area will be weakening during the
short term period, as a closed low over southern CA lifts and moves
off to the northeast toward the upper midwest.

At the surface, a cold front will drop down and stall near the
corner of NW Arkansas over the weekend. The upper flow will be
nearly parallel to the front, so it should not make it down into the
forecast area, at least in the short term.

A few batches of showers and thunderstorms will occur over northern
AR tonight, tomorrow, and again on Sunday. If the storms over
northern AR tomorrow afternoon become a little more organized, it`s
not out of the question that a few storms could make it into central
AR. The likelihood of that, however, is low at the moment.

Temperatures tomorrow will be about the same as today, and a few
degrees lower on Sunday. We have a heat advisory in effect for
central AR westward up the River Valley today, and the dewpoints
look to be a bit lower tomorrow...so I will not be issuing any
advisories with this package.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through next Friday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

Significant changes are expected across the state at the start of
the period. H500 trough across the Central Plains will continue its
way toward the Great Lakes which will compress the srn H500 ridge
southward. At the sfc, a cold front will make its way across the
state from Mon-Tue. This front will usher in cooler temperatures and
scattered showers and thunderstorms early in the week. Highs on
Monday could be quite interesting as the front bisects the area from
SW to NE, leading to 70s F across NW AR while southeast portions of
the state climb into the 90s F.

Through the middle to later part of next week, a second mid-level
trough looks to dive S-SE from the Northern Plains toward the Mid-MS
Valley. As this occurs it may intensify and become cutoff just north
of the state as H500 ridges flank it to the east and west. At the
sfc, ridging will settle in from the Great Lakes S-SW toward the
state. This will lead to a period of fairly cool temperatures and
some occasional rain chances/periods of cloud cover.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     72  94  70  92 /  10  20   0  20
Camden AR         71  95  70  93 /   0   0   0   0
Harrison AR       71  93  70  89 /  20  40  10  30
Hot Springs AR    73  96  72  94 /   0  10   0   0
Little Rock   AR  75  96  74  94 /   0  10   0   0
Monticello AR     71  95  72  93 /   0   0   0   0
Mount Ida AR      70  96  70  93 /   0  10   0   0
Mountain Home AR  70  93  70  90 /  30  40  10  30
Newport AR        71  91  70  90 /  10  10   0  10
Pine Bluff AR     72  95  71  93 /   0  10   0   0
Russellville AR   72  96  71  93 /  10  10  10  10
Searcy AR         71  94  70  93 /  10  10   0  10
Stuttgart AR      72  94  72  92 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ031-032-039-044-
121-122-130-138-230-238.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM....67