778
FXUS64 KLZK 150510
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1210 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

...NEW AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 147 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

The short-term period will remain forecasted as advertised over the
last few days with the pesky remnant low pressure that was once
Hurricane Francine continuing to meander across the region and
spiral drizzle and some light rain into portions of northeastern,
north-central, and central Arkansas.

For the remainder of Saturday into Saturday Night, expect the
overall POPs across the state and QPF amounts to remain low as any
drizzle or light rain that is experienced will not amount to much.
In response, temperatures across Arkansas will depend solely on
location. Locations that are experiencing cloud cover and/or some
drizzle with periods of light rain will continue to only see high
temperatures rise into the mid 70s to low 80s. Locations that are
impacted by less cloud cover and dry conditions will see high
temperatures that peak into the low to mid 80s.

Into Sunday and Sunday Night, expect an uptick of precipitation
chances with slightly higher rainfall totals than what has been
experienced on Saturday as a large plume of tropical moisture via
the Gulf of Mexico is expected to wrap around the remnant low which
will be positioned across the Mid-South region of the CONUS with
bands of light rain with a few convective bands (lightning within
the precipitation at times) not out of the question which will move
over eastern and central parts of Arkansas. The high temperature
trends will continue dependent on if your location is experiencing
cloud cover and/or precipitation with the effects being felt even
more by a few degrees as high temperatures are anticipated to remain
below average across central and eastern Arkansas.

For Monday into Monday Night, a rinse and repeat (no pun intended)
forecast from Saturday and Sunday is to be expected with slightly
lesser forecast QPF or rainfall totals throughout the day for
central and eastern Arkansas. Monday Night will likely be the last
stand of the leftovers from Francine as POP chances are expected to
lessen to almost near zero overnight on Monday before drier
conditions begin to welcome the entire state for the remainder of
the week.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 147 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

Long term PD continues to advertise drier and generally warming
condns for the FA, thru much of next week. Upper flow looks to
remain weak, w/ compact H500 ridging developing over the Srn Cntrl
US on Tues, as more prominent height falls and troughing is progged
to occur over the Wrn US, and a warm-core tropical low moves inland
over the Ern Seaboard.

Locally, the FA wl remain split b/w the influence of broad Midwest
sfc high pressure, and lee sfc cyclonic flow over the Cntrl and Srn
Great Plains. W/ this sfc pres gradient in place, winds wl lkly tend
to favor Erly to S/Erly components for the most part, and thus,
support some modest low-level WAA, though more N/Erly winds acrs
N/Ern AR wl still support cooler (generally near-normal) temps
relative to the remainder of the FA. Elsewhere, temps will trend
towards above-normal readings in the upper 80s to low 90s thru the
end of next week, before some low Chc PoPs become mentionable again
next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1208 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

Low clouds will continue over the state tonight. An increase in
moisture and instability associated with the remnants of Francine
will bring chances of showers to the area throughout the day Sunday.
Rain chances will increase in the afternoon and eveningand will be
highest in the east. MVFR and IFR conditions are expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     75  66  82  62 /  80  40  40   0
Camden AR         81  67  80  65 /  50  20  40   0
Harrison AR       76  63  78  61 /  40  20  20   0
Hot Springs AR    82  67  82  64 /  40  10  30   0
Little Rock   AR  79  69  82  67 /  60  30  30   0
Monticello AR     82  68  80  66 /  70  30  50   0
Mount Ida AR      82  65  82  62 /  30  10  30   0
Mountain Home AR  75  65  81  62 /  60  40  20   0
Newport AR        76  67  81  62 /  80  50  30  10
Pine Bluff AR     79  67  80  64 /  70  40  50   0
Russellville AR   81  67  82  64 /  40  20  20   0
Searcy AR         77  67  82  64 /  80  40  40  10
Stuttgart AR      78  68  80  64 /  80  50  50  10

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...74
LONG TERM....72
AVIATION...56