015
FXUS64 KLZK 241121
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
621 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 319 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

The upper level ridge is centered over Texas and affecting the
central and western parts of the country. An upper trough will move
through the northeast U.S. today and tonight. The southern ridge
will expand into the Rockies Tuesday.

The heat and humidity will continue today and Tuesday. Dew points
will be in the 70s both days. A Heat Advisory is in effect for today
through Tuesday with heat indices over 105 degrees. A short wave
will move through the area Tuesday afternoon and night with a slight
chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Highs today and Tuesday will be in the mid 90s to near 100 degrees.
Lows will be in the 70s tonight and Tuesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 319 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Not many value added changes will be forth coming this morning as
guidance continues to show a continuation of very hot conditions or
in other words, summer is here and appears to be locked in through
the majority of the period.

Period initiates with upper ridging over the Continental Divide
which in turn places a broad northwest flow aloft over the state.
Upper level impulse will be moving through early Wednesday bringing
widespread precipitation chances to the forecast area. Associated
cloud cover with these rain chances will knock down temperatures a
few degrees on Wednesday.

Come Wednesday night and into Thursday, surface high pressure
passing through the upper midwest/Great Lakes will drive a weak cold
front through the state with a brief return of northerly winds. High
temperatures Thursday will be the coolest of the extended period but
will still top out in the upper 80s to mid 90s along with somewhat
cooler dew points, especially across the north.

By Friday, the upper ridge that was centered over the Continental
Divide early in the period will be moving to east and building over
the south central and southeast United States. This will bring a
return to the very hot and humid conditions with widespread triple
digit heat index values. Guidance continues to show a strong anti-
cyclone moving into the upper midwest late in the period. This in
turn will drive another cold front toward the state with some rain
chances over the weekend. ECMWF is a little more aggressive with
rain vs the GFS but plenty of time remains to sort out the finer
details.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 618 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

High pressure continues over the southern U.S. Hot and humid
conditiions will continue with VFR conditions.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     97  74  98  75 /   0   0  10  20
Camden AR        100  76  98  76 /   0  10  10  10
Harrison AR       96  74  95  72 /   0   0  20  30
Hot Springs AR   100  76  99  76 /  10   0  10  10
Little Rock   AR 100  79  99  79 /   0   0  10  20
Monticello AR     99  77  98  77 /  10   0  10  10
Mount Ida AR      98  75  97  74 /   0   0  20  10
Mountain Home AR  97  74  96  73 /   0   0  20  30
Newport AR        98  75  99  77 /   0   0  10  20
Pine Bluff AR     99  77  99  77 /   0   0  10  10
Russellville AR  100  77  99  77 /   0   0  10  20
Searcy AR         99  75  98  75 /   0   0  10  20
Stuttgart AR      97  78  98  78 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT Tuesday for ARZ004>008-
014>017-024-025-031>034-039-042>047-052>057-062>069-103-112-113-
121>123-130-137-138-140-141-203-212-213-221>223-230-237-238-240-
241-313-340-341.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...51
LONG TERM....56
AVIATION...51