560
FXUS64 KLZK 211857
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
157 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 131 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

Early afternoon water vapor satellite imagery showed an
anticyclonic circulation in place over Arkansas while visible
satellite imagery showed scattered fair weather cumulus cloud
cover over the state. Both features are indicative of the dry
weather pattern holding in place for much of Arkansas this
afternoon. Temperatures were generally in the upper 80s to lower
90s as of 1 PM which likely represents the coolest we will be
during the early afternoon hours through the upcoming weekend and
into early next week.

A weak upper level disturbance is expected to move slowly east
over the north central plains on Saturday and continuing east over
the Great Lakes region on Sunday. The passage of this upper level
disturbance will result in the dome of high pressure situated over
the state to push west over Texas on Sunday. With the upper level
high nudged off to our west, some very weak north or northwesterly
flow aloft will make its way over Arkansas by Sunday afternoon.
This subtle shift in winds aloft is expected to be enough to send
a highly modified cold front south into northern Arkansas by the
peak heating hours of the day on Sunday. However a cold front is
for all intents and purposes a misnomer as Arkansas is only likely
to experience a wind shift to the west across much of the state
while northwest winds creep across the Missouri border into
northern Arkansas. The front is not expected to provide much if
any relief from the heat on Sunday or into early next week as it
is progged to simply stall and effectively wash out Sunday
evening.

With a very warm and humid day expected across Arkansas, there is
a tiny chance that we could see some isolated showers and/or
thunderstorms along the front Sunday afternoon. If a few showers
or storms do develop, they are not expected to produce enough rain
cooled air to provide any relief from the heat. If the rain
showers are indeed as transient as they appear in model data, they
may only make things feel worse on Sunday by locally increasing
the low-level humidity without producing enough rain to disperse
the heat. Regardless of the small rain chances, heat headlines in
the form of at least a heat advisory will likely be needed for
much of the state, but especially in and around the Arkansas River
Valley and across the lower terrain of the Mississippi Delta where
heat index values are already expected to eclipse 105 degrees.
Although not in official use yet, Heat Risk will be in the Major
Category, or a 3 out of 4 on the Heat Risk impacts scale. Heat
Risk is an experimental product that is designed to account for
many of the factors measured by the Heat Index and Wet Bulb Globe
Temperature but also accounting for factors that the preceding
indices cannot measure. The impact of heat and the likelihood of
heat related headlines are only expected to increase as we head
into early next week.

Cavanaugh

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through next Friday)
Issued at 131 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

Message remains the same regarding the long term, w/ oppressive and
hazardous heat set to return to the FA thru the middle portion of
next week. Mean H500 ridging wl be in place over the Cont Divide
thru much of the PD. The primary upper level high looks to stay
displaced to the west of the FA, remaining centered over the Desert
S/W regions, however, regionally hot and humid condns are expected
acrs the Srn Cntrl US thru next week.

Mean upper N/Wrly flow wl reside acrs the Upper Midwest and Great
Lakes region, w/ meager upper flow persisting over the FA. At the
sfc, a region of high pressure wl be maneuvering acrs the OH River
Valley on Mon, w/ a strong sfc low traversing acrs the Nrn Plains.
This wl setup a pattern for mean Srly to S/Wrly sfc flow acrs the FA
and greater Srn Plains thru much of next week.

Temps thru the early half of the week wl approach the upper 90s, to
near 100, or 100 degrees at most locations. Heat index values Mon
and Tues wl easily reach or exceed heat advisory criteria, with
maximum afternoon heat index values of 105-110 degrees common at
most locations. In addition to hazardous afternoon heat, overnight
low temps wl increase the potential heat hazard risks, w/ minimal
overnight cooling potential expected, and overnight lows Mon, Tues,
and Wed night only falling to the upper 70s, to near 80 degrees in
most areas.

Some relief wl be noted by Wed and Thurs, as a prominent H500
shortwave is progged to eject thru the mean W-N/Wrly flow, and drive
a round of widespread rain chances thru the day Wed and into Thurs.
Scattered to widespread precip is expected, providing slightly
cooler temps to the low 90s for at least a few days.

This cool down wl lkly be short-lived, as upper ridging is expected
to amplify again acrs the Wrn US by Fri. Greater synoptic subsidence
should shut off local rain chances, and aftn temps wl lkly be on the
rise again. However, broad sfc high pressure acrs the Great Lakes
could bring the chance for a backdoor cdfrnt to usher in N/Erly sfc
winds over the region, and provide some relief from higher dewpoints
and overall mugginess by next weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     72  93  76  96 /   0   0   0  10
Camden AR         72  96  74  99 /   0   0   0   0
Harrison AR       69  92  74  92 /   0   0   0  20
Hot Springs AR    72  95  73  99 /   0   0   0   0
Little Rock   AR  76  96  78  99 /   0   0   0  10
Monticello AR     74  95  76  97 /   0   0   0   0
Mount Ida AR      69  93  73  96 /   0   0   0   0
Mountain Home AR  69  93  73  93 /   0   0   0  20
Newport AR        74  94  76  96 /   0   0   0  10
Pine Bluff AR     74  94  76  98 /   0   0   0   0
Russellville AR   72  96  75  97 /   0   0   0  10
Searcy AR         72  94  74  97 /   0   0   0  10
Stuttgart AR      76  93  77  96 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...66
LONG TERM....72
AVIATION...66