669
FXUS64 KLZK 210522
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1222 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 118 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

H500 ridging to the east of the area will expand west over the state
Fri-Sat. This will provide dry conditions along with increasing
temperatures the next couple of days. Td values will largely remain
below 70 F which will limit heat indices to below heat advisory
criteria. Additionally, NWS HeatRisk values are expected to mainly
be in the 1-2 range through Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through next Thursday)
Issued at 118 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY/MONDAY:

In the upper lvls, an elongated region of high pressure extending
from over the Southwestern region of the CONUS into over the Mid-
South region of the CONUS will be positioned throughout the
beginning of the long-term forecast period.

At the sfc, high pressure will meander across the region with
predominately southwesterly winds keeping conditions dry and hot.

In response, expect the hottest temperatures of the year across the
Natural State with a few locations across the state making a run at
and reaching the triple-digit mark. Heat index values will be likely
in the 100s for a decent portion of the state on Sunday, Monday, and
possibly Tuesday. A few locations may see heat index values in the
mid to upper 100s in Heat Advisory criteria. It will be a must
during the weekend the utilize heat safety practices such as taking
frequent breaks out of the direct exposure of the heat along with
staying hydrating whether you are recreating or working.

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY:

The upper lvl ridge becomes fixated over the Desert Southwest region
of the CONUS with northwesterly flow transitioning over Arkansas and
a shortwave that will approach the state on Wednesday.

At the sfc, a frontal boundary will approach the state from the
north in cohesion with high pressure positioned across the Mid-
Atlantic states ushering in gulf moisture from the Gulf of Mexico
which will result in increased POP chances from mid to late next
week, especially as the frontal boundary approaches the state on
Wednesday into Thursday.

In response, expect above normal temperatures to continue,
especially in the middle of the week before the approaching frontal
boundary later in the week may drop temperatures by a few degrees,
but significant cooling is not expected. POPs will increase over
this period as an approaching frontal boundary will present the
opportunity of rain and isolated thunderstorms with gulf moisture in
place before the FROPA on Thursday. Later next week does look to
offer us a slight and brief reprieve from the hot and dry conditions
that will greet us into the weekend and early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1217 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

High pressure continues to build over the area from the east. The
latest KLZK sounding indicates dry air aloft. Hot and dry
conditions will continue with VFR conditions.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     93  71  95  74 /   0   0   0   0
Camden AR         95  71  97  73 /   0   0   0   0
Harrison AR       92  69  92  72 /   0   0   0  10
Hot Springs AR    92  71  97  73 /   0   0   0   0
Little Rock   AR  94  75  97  77 /   0   0   0   0
Monticello AR     94  73  97  75 /   0   0   0   0
Mount Ida AR      90  69  95  72 /   0   0   0   0
Mountain Home AR  93  70  93  72 /   0   0   0   0
Newport AR        94  73  95  75 /   0   0   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     94  73  97  75 /   0   0   0   0
Russellville AR   94  73  96  75 /   0   0   0   0
Searcy AR         94  71  96  73 /   0   0   0   0
Stuttgart AR      93  74  95  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....74
AVIATION...51