385
FXUS64 KMAF 230724
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
224 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 213 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Current satellite and observations show low clouds have moved into
the area. These clouds will remain through this morning before
scattering out this afternoon. Weak cold air advection will offset
the increased insolation and highs this afternoon should hold below
normal with readings in the 70s to low 80s providing a beautiful
day. The jet stream is centered over the CWA and will provide enough
instability that isolated to widely scattered showers are expected
between the I-10/I-20 corridors later today.

Surface high pressure behind the front quickly sags southeast
providing a return of warmer southeasterly winds overnight. In
addition, increasing subsidence Tuesday behind a departing upper
trough axis will cause temperatures to rebound back into the 80s.

Hennig

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 213 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

A secondary shortwave trough will dig into the Great Plains amid the
larger longwave troughing across the Great Lakes to southern Great
Plains. This secondary shortwave trough pushes a reinforcing cold
front south through our region early on Wednesday. Continued rain
chances may accompany this front across eastern portions of the
area, but drier and more stable air quickly filters in behind it,
ending rainfall potential. Cooler, below normal temperatures arrive
behind the cold front Wednesday afternoon with lower 80s for most of
the region. Similarly, a cool night in the upper 50s and low 60s is
expected.

The remainder of the week into next weekend sees a quieter weather
pattern return to the southern Great Plains. A closed upper-low is
forecast to develop and remain nearly stationary over the lower
Mississippi River Valley. At the same time, an upper-high develops
and strengthens near the Four Corners. Our region resides between
these features, keeping a largely dry continental airmass filtering
into the region. This means no hope for any rainfall beyond
Wednesday. On the bright side, temperatures should remain pleasant
and near normal through the end of this week. Temperatures may climb
to near 90 this weekend, a tad above normal for this time of year as
the upper-high shifts slightly further east.

-Chehak

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1219 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Current observations show most sites across the area are MVFR and
should stay there until lifting to VFR after 15Z. TS has moved
east of all TAF sites and should not be a factor this TAF period.
Northeast winds will diminish and become southeasterly after 18Z.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               77  62  86  64 /  20  20  20  20
Carlsbad                 81  61  89  62 /  10  10  10  10
Dryden                   82  68  88  68 /  30  10  20  10
Fort Stockton            78  63  89  63 /  30  20  20  10
Guadalupe Pass           75  60  82  61 /  20  10  10  10
Hobbs                    78  59  87  60 /   0   0  10  10
Marfa                    76  59  83  58 /  30  20  40  10
Midland Intl Airport     77  63  87  64 /  20  20  20  20
Odessa                   77  63  87  65 /  30  20  20  20
Wink                     80  65  90  65 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....91
AVIATION...10