370
FXUS64 KMAF 211745
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1245 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 242 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

Current water vapor imagery shows a large upper level low over the
California/Arizona border. The low will move east today with strongly
divergent flow ahead of the low situated over eastern New Mexico
and West Texas this afternoon and evening. Conditions will be
favorable for severe thunderstorms to develop with CAPE values
increasing from 24 hours ago and are now above 1500J/Kg. Forecast
soundings show moderate lapse rates so the CAPE is tall and
skinny, but 0-6km shear still supports a large hail/damaging wind
threat. The presence of the low may allow convection to persist
well after sunset and possibly even after midnight.

Temperatures today will be similar to yesterday, perhaps a degree
or two cooler due to increased cloud cover during the afternoon.
Tonight should be the last night for lows in the 70s for most
locations before a cold front moves into the area Sunday. The low
pressure system over the Rockies moves into the Central Plains
pushing a cold front south that reaches the I-20 corridor during
the afternoon and quickly pushes into the Big Bend overnight.
Additional rainfall will be possible with the frontal passage,
heaviest rainfall will be along the front transitioning to a
lighter, stratiform rain behind the front.

Hennig

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 242 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

Surface high pressure builds in Monday behind the front
continuing the falling temperature trend as highs hold in the 70s.
The departing low in the Great Plains allows an amplified ridge
to develop over the western United States. Northerly flow sets up
over the Great Plains and models are getting into agreement that a
trough will drop south and move across the CWA on Tuesday though
there remains some uncertainty in the strength and timing. A
stronger trough or even upper low could provide enough lift for
scattered showers with moderate rainfall of a quarter of an inch
or greater. The transitional seasons historically give us our
highest rainfall totals so hopefully we will get some good
rainfall even if low temperatures are cooling down and getting
close to ending the growing season for eastern New Mexico and West
Texas. A reinforcing shot of cooler temperatures is expected
Wednesday before the western U.S. ridge migrates east and brings
temps back up to near normal and ends rain chances.

Hennig

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

The primary concern this forecast period is low to medium (20-40%)
potential for thunderstorms to impact western terminals this
afternoon through early this evening. Have included TEMPO TS
mention for CNM, HOB, and PEQ from roughly 20Z-02Z where
confidence is highest for impacts including lightning, erratic
gusty winds, and brief MVFR conditions in heavy rain and/or
blowing dust. Significant uncertainty exists in impacts to the
east, thus will monitor trends and amend as needed. Away from
storms, elevated and gusty southeasterly winds will continue into
tonight, with gusts to 20-25kt possible. A cold front moving into
the region overnight through Sunday morning will veer winds to the
northwest and north, with MVFR ceilings expected to develop into
HOB and MAF near daybreak, persisting thereafter through the end
of the period. Elsewhere, VFR with increasing clouds will prevail.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               73  84  58  74 /  10  60  70  40
Carlsbad                 63  79  57  76 /  20   0  20  30
Dryden                   73  91  66  81 /   0  20  70  40
Fort Stockton            71  89  60  75 /  20  30  60  50
Guadalupe Pass           61  77  53  70 /  10   0  10  30
Hobbs                    66  73  52  77 /  40  20  20  20
Marfa                    62  86  54  75 /  20  20  40  60
Midland Intl Airport     72  84  58  74 /  20  40  60  40
Odessa                   72  85  58  74 /  30  40  60  40
Wink                     71  86  60  77 /  30  20  40  40

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...84