Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
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531 FXUS64 KMAF 131908 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 208 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Friday night) Issued at 207 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Current satellite shows some cumulus and light showers developing in the Guadalupe and Davis mountains driven by surface heating and elevation. Not expecting much out of this activity before it dissipates shortly after sunset. As expected, temperatures are up into the 90s to low 100s already under mostly clear skies and will continue to climb a few more degrees before peak heating. Temps tonight drop into the 70s with some 60s in the mountains before we see the heat return tomorrow. An upper level ridge over the area will weaken as an upper low moves in off the West Coast. This should help shave a degree or two off highs tomorrow as well as bring a slightly higher chance for showers and thunderstorms from southeastern New Mexico into the Davis Mountains. A storm or two could be strong but severe weather is not expected. Lows tomorrow night will be similar to tonight, dropping into the 70s for most locations not in the mountains. Hennig && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 207 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 The long term stays in a fairly quiet and stagnant pattern as we move through this weekend and into early next week. A weak trough lifts away into the north-central Plains on the day Saturday, with weak ridging re-taking a hold over the region. The ridge never becomes very strong, helping to limit the heat potential some. High temperatures on Saturday through Tuesday stay roughly the same, topping out in the upper 90s for most with 100s found along and near the Pecos/Rio Grande river valleys. Daily Heat Advisories are possible across the Big Bend and the more vulnerable higher elevations, but the Permian Basin looks to avoid headline-worthy heat. In fact, the forecast keeps KMAF`s highs under 100 through the long term...so we`ll take it. As for precipitation, the weak subsidence from the ridging limits storm chances to the classic spots over the Davis Mountains each afternoon through Tuesday. As we move into the middle of next week, long-range models/ensembles are hinting at a tropical disturbance/inverted trough sneaking into Texas from the Gulf of Mexico. If this occurs, it could bring some welcome moisture and less hot conditions. -Munyan && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1217 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Light southeast winds and VFR conditions continue this TAF period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 73 99 74 98 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 74 100 73 102 / 10 10 20 10 Dryden 76 99 76 99 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 73 100 74 101 / 0 0 0 10 Guadalupe Pass 73 94 71 95 / 10 20 30 10 Hobbs 70 97 70 98 / 10 0 20 0 Marfa 60 96 63 96 / 10 10 10 20 Midland Intl Airport 74 97 74 97 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 75 97 74 98 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 75 102 76 103 / 0 0 10 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for Central Brewster County-Chinati Mountains-Chisos Basin-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Lower Brewster County-Marfa Plateau-Presidio Valley-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor. NM...Heat Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for Eddy County Plains- Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County. && $$ SHORT TERM...10 LONG TERM....16 AVIATION...10