056
FXUS64 KMAF 130527
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1227 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Thursday night)
Issued at 210 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

An upper level ridge from northern Mexico stretching north into New
Mexico will remain in place over the short term forecast period.
Increasing subsidence will decrease cloud cover and increase
temperatures sending highs into the triple digits for most
locations. Southeast winds will advect just enough moisture into the
mountains that a few isolated showers or thunderstorms may form
though any accumulations would be light. No rain is expected
elsewhere.

Hennig

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 210 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

Friday morning a large upper level ridge will be situated over
Texas while a upper low over Baja California will transition into
an open shortwave trough, moving up into the Desert Southwest. Our
warm up on Friday will be a bit subdued as the shortwave moves
across New Mexico, flattening the ridge, and "cooling"
temperatures down to the mid to upper 90s for most. Recent model
runs have pushed the shortwave further north, shunting the best
precipitation chances along with it into northern New Mexico and
Colorado. Still, given model disagreement with the progression of
this shortwave with each run, have elected to maintain some POPs
across the higher terrain and parts of New Mexico for Friday
afternoon and evening. As the shortwave moves up and out on
Saturday, ridging will build back in and a thermal ridge axis
will set up over far West Texas, bumping 850mb temps to the 33-35C
across the west and 27-30C across the east. Southwesterly flow
returns and subsidence will continue to tick up through the end of
the weekend, and the River Valleys reach 110+ Sunday afternoon.
Beyond Sunday, the pattern will remain fairly stagnate with
above- normal temperatures and dry conditions continuing into mid
week.

-Zuber

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1227 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

VFR remains through the period. Southeasterly winds continue into
the morning. Gusts pick up this afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring              100  73  98  73 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                105  74 101  72 /   0   0  10  20
Dryden                  100  75  98  75 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton           102  73  99  73 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           97  72  94  70 /  10  10  20  20
Hobbs                   101  70  97  70 /   0   0   0  10
Marfa                    98  61  96  62 /  10  10  10  10
Midland Intl Airport     99  73  96  73 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                  100  74  97  74 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                    105  75 101  76 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ this afternoon to 9 PM
     CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for Central Brewster County-
     Chinati Mountains-Chisos Basin-Davis Mountains-Davis
     Mountains Foothills-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-
     Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Lower Brewster County-
     Marfa Plateau-Presidio Valley-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor.

NM...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM MDT Thursday for Eddy County
     Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....88
AVIATION...93