884
FXUS64 KMAF 070544
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1244 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Friday night)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

The short term synoptic pattern is generally dictated by the
dominant upper ridge overhead, set to slowly meander eastward
through Texas tomorrow. The main headlines under this pattern will
be the continued heat, with high temperatures exceeding the triple
digits both today and tomorrow afternoon region-wide except the
higher elevations and Heat Advisories are in effect today for most
zones along and west of the Pecos River. The low-level thermal ridge
remains at a similar location/intensity for tomorrow, albeit maybe a
degree C cooler, and as such, more Heat Advisories are likely for
tomorrow as well.

Aside from the heat, the other focus in the short term is on largely
diurnally and orographically driven convection across the higher
terrain today and tomorrow. We are already seeing this occur with
showers and thunderstorms across the Davis Mountains and adjacent
foothills southward through the Big Bend though fairly low CAPE and
very little wind shear should keep storms sub-severe. A weak MCS is
likely to develop off this afternoon`s convection across the TX
Panhandle and slowly sag south in the late evening. Most CAMs kill
of this before reaching our area but a few still show the system
edging into the northern Permian Basin before killing it off. A
similar situation is on tap for tomorrow afternoon where largely sub-
severe storms are possible in the afternoon for the western higher
terrain.

-Munyan

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

The upper ridge that has been in control for the tail-end of this
week continues to slide towards the Gulf Coast on Saturday, giving
way to a trough set to move in and around its periphery. Still,
Saturday`s forecast maintains a repeat of today and Friday`s weather
with continued hot afternoons in the triple digits for most and
afternoon sub-severe thunderstorm chances in the southwestern higher
terrain. The real pattern change looks to arrive on Sunday/Monday
when a cold front pushes into the area. There still remains some
uncertainty in the timing of the arrival of the front but there is
general agreement in it to push in late Sunday, leading to yet
another hot day. The front could bring some added precipitation
chances to the north-central Permian Basin and southeast New Mexico.
Between the weak cold front moving through and the
clouds/precipitation present into Monday, some relief from the heat
arrives with highs *only* in the mid 90s for most. Unfortunately,
this relief is short-lived and we snap right back to a pattern akin
of this week with hot and dry afternoons and diurnal showers/storms
in the mountains.

-Munyan

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1242 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

A decaying line of showers and thunderstorms is slowly
progressing southward across the South Plains, and may impact HOB
within the first few hours of the forecast period. However,
confidence is low, thus will monitor and amend if needed, though
an easterly wind shift may be possible due to the associated
outflow boundary. Elsewhere, winds will remain elevated and at
least intermittently gusty out of the southeast, with VFR
conditions prevailing areawide. Any thunderstorms Friday afternoon
and evening should remain west of area terminals.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               74 102  75 101 /   0   0   0  10
Carlsbad                 73 104  74 101 /  20  10  10  20
Dryden                   75 101  75 102 /   0  10  10  10
Fort Stockton            75 100  75 104 /   0  10  10  20
Guadalupe Pass           71  94  71  92 /  40  20  20  20
Hobbs                    71 101  72  97 /   0   0  10  20
Marfa                    63  93  61  96 /  20  40  30  20
Midland Intl Airport     74 101  75 101 /   0   0   0  10
Odessa                   75 100  76 102 /   0   0   0  10
Wink                     76 104  75 106 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...84