Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
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654 FXUS64 KMAF 181721 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 1221 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 ...New AVIATION... .MESOSCALE UPDATE FOR ONGOING BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS... Issued at 813 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 A band of showers and thunderstorms continues to slowly slide east across the Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos this morning. This band is supported by elevated instability and a weak mid-level impulse moving across the region. Continued maintenance and modest development of this band is expected through the next couple of hours before this activity moves east and out of the region. Have updated the forecast to reflect these changes. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday afternoon) Issued at 340 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Winds are elevated across much of the region this morning with gusts into the 30s and 40s in some spots thanks to a strong low level jet. This jet will continue into the morning and bring low clouds in across parts of the Lower Trans Pecos and eastern Permian Basin, including Midland/Odessa. CLouds will lift during the mid to late morning and temperatures will warm into the upper 90s for most with low 100s across the Pecos River Valley. Highs will be into the 110s in Big Bend along the Rio Grande. Given this, a Heat Advisory has been issued for this afternoon into the early evening. A select few around the Davis Mountains and onto the Stockton Plateau may see some isolated showers and storms this afternoon. Rain amounts will be light outside of the strongest cells. Steep lapse rates, ~2000J/kg of MUCAPE, and some shear may lead to one or two storms being severe with hail and damaging winds being the main threats. Lows tonight settle into the low 70s for most with 60s in the mountains. Wednesday sees the thermal ridge push to the west as an organizing tropical disturbance begins to move into the Mexican gulf coast. This will lead to temperatures falling below normal nearly areawide with high in the upper 80s to 90s. The hot spots along the Rio Grande will still make it over the century mark, but still end up several degrees cooler compared to the last few days. Additional moisture and increasing broad scale ascent increase rain chances late in the day. -Stickney && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 340 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Wednesday night, a tropical disturbance will move onshore in Mexico a couple hundred miles south of Brownsville, advecting a rich, tropical airmass into West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. E-NE winds are forecast to increase Wednesday night/Thursday over the higher terrain, w/MOS even suggesting high winds in the Guadalupes, but we won`t take that bait just yet. POPs will begin increasing over the lower Trans Pecos, increasing WNW Thursday, w/best chances along and west of the Pecos. PWATs will be on the increase, peaking at KMAF 00Z Friday at 1.97"/1.71" on the NAM/GFS, respectively. Climatological max is 1.66", with a mean of 1.01", so the potential for respectable QPF will be there as warm rain processes commence. With any luck, this will put a dent in D2/D3 conditions west of the Pecos, and bring the Pecos/Rio Grande above baseflow. With increased cloud cover, moisture, and convection, Thursday will be more like Brrrrsday as highs come in some ~ 15 F below normal. Thursday night, the tropical disturbance, or what`s left of it, will move into the Pacific south of Baja del Sur, but NBM keeps likely POPs west of the Pecos through Friday afternoon. This is probably too long, as long-range models are wont to do that far out. As the tropical disturbance exits WSW, the upper ridge, currently over the eastern seaboard, is forecast to build back into the southwest CONUS/northwest Mexico, resulting in a warming trend after Thursday. By Monday, highs should be back to a respectable ~ 5 F above normal. After Friday, convection each day will be confined to the Davis Mountains and possible far NW as diurnally-driven activity rolls out of the Sacramento Foothills. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1220 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 VFR conditions are expected to continue through the period. Strong and occasionally gusty southeast winds will continue at all terminals through the period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 72 90 69 79 / 0 0 30 60 Carlsbad 72 94 70 77 / 10 10 40 80 Dryden 73 91 70 78 / 0 10 70 90 Fort Stockton 72 92 69 77 / 10 10 40 80 Guadalupe Pass 68 88 64 71 / 0 20 50 80 Hobbs 70 90 66 76 / 10 0 30 70 Marfa 62 91 61 73 / 10 20 50 90 Midland Intl Airport 72 89 69 77 / 0 0 30 60 Odessa 73 89 69 77 / 0 0 30 70 Wink 75 94 72 81 / 10 0 30 70 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for Central Brewster County-Chinati Mountains-Chisos Basin-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Lower Brewster County-Marfa Plateau. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...91 LONG TERM....44 AVIATION...91