628
ACUS11 KWNS 152058
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152057
KSZ000-152300-

Mesoscale Discussion 1273
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0357 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Areas affected...parts of central into eastern Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 152057Z - 152300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Increasing thunderstorm development possible through 5-7
PM CDT, with strong gusts approaching or perhaps briefly exceeding
severe limits the primary potential hazard.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm development has recently increased and
intensified along the leading edge of outflow associated with
weakening initial convective development approaching the I-135/35
corridor of central Kansas.  The boundary layer immediately ahead of
this activity has become strongly heated and deeply mixed (with
surface dew points falling into the lower 60s F as temperatures rose
into the mid 90s F), but may still be characterized by weak to
modest CAPE.  Aided by forcing for ascent associated with weak
mid-level troughing overspreading the central Great Plains, this may
be sufficient to maintain convection along deepening/strengthening
convective outflow  spreading northeastward and eastward through
early evening.

Although deep-layer shear is weak, the low-level thermodynamic
profiles, coupled with 20-30 kt south to southwesterly mean flow in
the lower/mid-troposphere, probably will be conducive to a few
localized strong to severe downbursts, initially.  Gradually,
though, gusty winds along consolidating outflows are expected to
become the most prominent potential hazard, perhaps approaching or
briefly exceeding severe limits.

..Kerr/Gleason.. 06/15/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON   38379755 39409727 39569589 38709555 37519632 37409791
            38379755