009
ACUS11 KWNS 250200
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250159
SDZ000-NEZ000-250300-

Mesoscale Discussion 1401
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0859 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Areas affected...Portions of western and southern SD

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 250159Z - 250300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorm development is expected to continue
through this evening across portions of west central and
southwestern SD. Large hail near 1.50-2.50" in diameter and damaging
wind gusts near 60-70 mph are possible.

DISCUSSION...An area of thunderstorms has developed along a
prefrontal surface trough and cold front late this evening across
the higher terrain of SD. This region is under a thermal mid-level
trough, where boundary layer temperatures and dewpoints under steep
mid-level lapse rates continue yield moderate instability and large
CAPE within the hail growth zone. In addition, increasing flow with
height is resulting in sufficient deep layer effective shear
exceeding 55 kt via forecast RAP soundings.

Elongated, linear hodographs suggest splitting thunderstorms with an
associated hail threat will remain possible over the next 1-2 hours
before multiple mergers and outflow boundaries interact. After
which, later tonight, increasing isentropic ascent within the low to
mid-levels may continue to support a cluster or two of thunderstorms
persisting and propagating eastward off the higher terrain, with an
accompanying damaging wind threat near the cold front. Trends will
be monitored for a possible watch, which will depend on upscale
growth into a bowing cluster.

..Barnes/Gleason.. 06/25/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...LBF...UNR...

LAT...LON   42780077 42680114 43350170 43540238 43760345 44180386
            44890382 45320341 45400265 45150172 45070086 44450071
            42940044 42780077