Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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Issued by NWS
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831 ACUS11 KWNS 240640 SWOMCD SPC MCD 240640 NDZ000-MTZ000-240845- Mesoscale Discussion 1391 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Areas affected...Eastern MT...Western North Dakota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 240640Z - 240845Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A few instances of large hail are possible across eastern Montana and western North Dakota over the next few hours. DISCUSSION...Warm-air advection across a frontal zone across eastern MT has contributed to an increase in elevated thunderstorm activity over the past hour or so. Significant buoyancy exists downstream across far eastern MT and into western ND, supported primarily by steep mid-level lapse rates (i.e. 8.5 to 9 deg C per km) and modest mid-level moisture. Based on recent mesoanalysis, 0-6 km bulk shear is around 40 to 50 kt, with the resulting combination of vertical shear and buoyancy supportive of organized updrafts and a few elevated supercells. Given the buoyancy downstream, this activity may persist for the next few hours into far eastern MT and western ND, although the overall coverage may begin to decrease as storms become displaced east of the more favorable warm-air advection. Large hail is possible within the more organized storms, but the overall severe risk should remain isolated, likely precluding the need for a watch. ..Mosier/Guyer.. 06/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BIS...BYZ...GGW... LAT...LON 46010390 46130558 46630703 47350750 48330655 48700544 48760452 48530346 48040242 46870156 46090162 46010390