833
ACUS11 KWNS 170433
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 170433
MNZ000-NDZ000-170630-

Mesoscale Discussion 2076
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1133 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Areas affected...Northeast North Dakota/Northwest Minnesota

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 673...

Valid 170433Z - 170630Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 673
continues.

SUMMARY...Threat for a few strong gusts, and perhaps some marginally
severe hail, will spread across northeast North Dakota into
northwest Minnesota.

DISCUSSION...Long-lived MCV has tracked northeast across ND and is
currently located near the international border over northwest
Towner County. This feature appears partly responsible for a
modest-sized MCS that is progressing across western portions of
WW673. Latest surface data suggests the primary front extends from
near Grand Forks to south of Harvey, in Wells County. Latest VWP
data from MVX exhibits southwesterly LLJ (3km AGL) around 35kt. A
well-defined corridor of low-level warm advection should encourage
continued eastward propagation of the MCS across northeast ND into
northwest MN, perhaps as early as 06z. While a few strong gusts are
possible along the leading squall line, only marginally severe hail
appears possible along the trailing southwestern flank. New WW is
not currently anticipated.

..Darrow.. 09/17/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...

LAT...LON   49029872 49199674 48549647 48189865 49029872