045
ACUS11 KWNS 250717
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250716
WIZ000-MIZ000-250845-

Mesoscale Discussion 1403
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0216 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Areas affected...Central/Eastern WI into Central Lake Michigan

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 454...455...

Valid 250716Z - 250845Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 454, 455
continues.

SUMMARY...Damaging gusts remain possible across central and eastern
Wisconsin, particularly from Marathon and Shawano Counties into
Outagamie and Brown during the next hour. Isolated hail is also
possible within any development ahead of the line.

DISCUSSION...Convective line moving southeastward across central WI
has shown a trend towards better linear organization over the past
hour or so. A notable forward surge has recently become more evident
from Lincoln into Marathon Counties. Velocity data from KGRB shows
strong inbounds indicating a rear-inflow jet across the same
counties. As a result, corridor downstream from this portion of the
line likely has the highest potential for damaging wind gusts during
the next hour or so. Main uncertainty is whether or not the rear
inflow and associated strong gusts can penetrate the layer of
low-level stability, allowing for gusts to reach the surface.
Current motion within this portion of the line is estimated at 45 to
50 kt, which takes this portion of the line to near Green Bay around
0830Z and to the western shore of central Lake Michigan around
0900Z. There is some potential for the line to accelerate, bringing
the strong gusts to this areas sooner.

Isolated hail will remain possible with any storms that develop
within the warm-air advection wing that precedes the convective
line.

..Mosier.. 06/25/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...MKX...ARX...MPX...

LAT...LON   44569128 45229040 45578828 45378683 44928630 43428706
            43358885 44569128