659
ACUS11 KWNS 251128
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251128
OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-251300-

Mesoscale Discussion 1406
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0628 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Areas affected...Far southeast WI...Southern Lower MI...Northern
IL...Far Northern IN...Far Northwest OH

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 455...456...

Valid 251128Z - 251300Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 455, 456
continues.

SUMMARY...Threat for damaging gusts will extend into more of
southern Lower Michigan and adjacent northern Indiana and far
northwest Ohio over the next two hours. Damaging wind gusts will
also remain possible across far southeast Wisconsin and northern
IL/Chicagoland.

DISCUSSION...An organized MCS continues to push southeastward across
central/southern Lake Michigan and southern Lower MI. Recent storm
motion was estimated at 45 kt within the surging portion of the line
near GRR, which is a bit slower than estimates two hours ago.
Western portions of the MCS have trended slower and more southerly.
Updrafts along the leading edge of the MCS are still quite strong,
and the general expectation is for the threat for damaging gusts to
persist for at least the next two hours as the system moves from
southern Lower MI into northern IN and far northwest OH. Current
storm motion brings the line into northern IN and far northwest OH
around 1230Z.

Farther west, thunderstorm coverage has increased across northern IL
and far southeast WI, with the northern extent for this development
now interacting with the outflow from the MCS. Some linear
organization may be underway with these storms, supported by 40 to
50 kt mid-level flow and associated moderate deep-layer vertical
shear. Storm motion is around 40 kt, bringing these storms into the
Chicago area around 12 to 1230Z. Primary severe risk is damaging
gusts.

..Mosier.. 06/25/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...IWX...GRR...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...

LAT...LON   43188833 43378650 43268428 42148362 41208388 40878580
            41128976 41499057 43188833