132
ACUS11 KWNS 141756
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141755
PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-142000-

Mesoscale Discussion 1260
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1255 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Areas affected...Much of OH...Northern WV/Northern WV
Panhandle...Western PA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 141755Z - 142000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage and intensity is expected to
increase from Ohio into northern West Virginia and western
Pennsylvania this afternoon. Large hail and damaging gusts are
possible with the strongest storms and a watch will probably be
needed over portions of the area.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery has shown an expanding and
deepening cumulus field from OH eastward into western PA beneath the
mid-level clouds over the past hour or so. The only exception is
across southern OH into northern WV/northern WV Panhandle, where
billow clouds suggest these areas still have some low-level
stability in place. General expectation is that continued heating
should destabilize the airmass in these areas as well. The primary
front is still north of the region, but low-level convergence within
the warm sector, particularly near a weak pre-frontal trough, is
expected to support thunderstorm development as the airmass
continues to destabilize. Modest buoyancy is already in place, with
mesoanalysis estimating MLCAPE currently around 1000 J/kg. Some
additional heating is possible, likely bring MLCAPE closer to 1500
J/kg later this afternoon. Strengthening mid-level flow is
anticipated as well, helping to increase effective bulk shear to
around 45 to 50 kt.

These environmental conditions will likely support strong to severe
storms capable of both large hail and damaging gusts. Overall severe
coverage is still uncertain, but the trends within the visible
imagery suggest that coverage will likely be sufficient to merit a
watch.

..Mosier/Gleason.. 06/14/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...

LAT...LON   40318431 41078095 41247951 39537981 38948172 39088440
            40318431