Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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Issued by NWS
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936 ACUS11 KWNS 111939 SWOMCD SPC MCD 111938 FLZ000-112145- Mesoscale Discussion 1233 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0238 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Areas affected...far south Florida Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 111938Z - 112145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...A brief tornado will be possible through the late afternoon hours across the Everglades. Watch issuance will not be needed. DISCUSSION...Convective cells embedded with a broad stratiform rain shield across the FL Everglades have taken on supercellular characteristics over the past few hours per reflectivity/velocity imagery from KAMX. Broad/weak, transient mesocyclones have been observed mainly south of the I-75 corridor before weakening as they migrate into a well-established cold pool north of the interstate. Despite the expansive precipitation shield across the region, ample low-level moisture (dewpoints in the mid/upper 70s) is supporting around 1500 J/kg MLCAPE, which will remain sufficient to support a few deeper convective towers. Additionally, regional VWPs continue to show around 50-100 m2/s2 0-1 SRH with a slight increase in 1 km winds up to 30-35 knots noted over the past hour or so. While not substantial, this low-level shear has been sufficient to support some degree of low-level rotation, which may result in a brief tornado within the Everglades region through late afternoon. ..Moore/Smith.. 06/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MFL... LAT...LON 25198067 25398110 25638124 25818144 25988151 26118134 26138104 26098075 25938022 25778018 25498026 25348040 25258044 25198067