813
ACUS11 KWNS 250440
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250440
WIZ000-MNZ000-250645-

Mesoscale Discussion 1402
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1140 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Areas affected...parts of east central Minnesota...northwestern into
central Wisconsin

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 454...

Valid 250440Z - 250645Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 454
continues.

SUMMARY...Increasing thunderstorm development seems likely to
gradually evolve into an intensifying and much better organized
southeastward moving cluster of storms across northwestern into
central Wisconsin through 2-4 AM CDT.  This probably will be
accompanied by increasing risk for damaging wind gusts.  Trends are
being monitored for the possibility of an additional watch or two
downstream.

DISCUSSION...In advance of a surface low now near Minneapolis, it
appears that the south-southwesterly low-level jet has strengthened
to 50+ kt across southeastern Minnesota into northwestern Wisconsin.
 Intensifying low-level warm advection and lift have contributed to
steadily increasing convection in a cluster centered roughly 60
miles north to northeast of Eau Claire.  Aided by continuing
elevated updraft inflow of seasonably high moisture content, and
further erosion of mid-level inhibition, substantive further upscale
growth of convection appears probable during the next few hours.
With most unstable CAPE as high as 4000+ J/kg, in the presence of
moderate to strong deep-layer shear, activity still seems likely to
eventually become much better organized, including the evolution of
a notable mesoscale convective vortex.

With the stronger, unstable inflow being maintained from the south
to southwest, the evolving cluster seems likely to take on more of a
southeastward propagation as it becomes better organized across
central Wisconsin through 07-09Z.  And strengthening rear inflow to
the west and south of the developing cyclonic circulation may
gradually be accompanied by increasing risk for damaging surface
gusts.

..Kerr/Gleason.. 06/25/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...

LAT...LON   45579279 45999206 46179067 45798945 45338852 44618933
            44129053 44189172 44549252 45169348 45579279