668
ACUS11 KWNS 240332
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240332
NDZ000-240600-

Mesoscale Discussion 1390
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1032 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

Areas affected...parts of north central North Dakota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 240332Z - 240600Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Lingering isolated supercell development may approach the
north central North Dakota international border area by 1-2 AM CDT,
accompanied by continuing risk for large hail and locally strong
surface gusts.  But it seems probable that this activity will tend
to weaken as it progresses south of the border overnight.

DISCUSSION...The southernmost cell of an initial cluster of
supercells over southern Saskatchewan has been maintaining
considerable strength while steadily propagating east-southeastward
within strongly sheared 35-40 kt west-southwesterly deep-layer mean
flow.  It appears that this is being supported be seasonably moist
updraft inflow, rooted within large-scale ascent associated with
low-level warm advection, above a stable boundary layer to the east
of the lee surface trough, but still characterized by CAPE on the
order of 1000-2000+ J/kg.

Based on its current motion, it would begin propagating across the
international border to the north of Minot by 06-07Z.  However, the
northern/northeastern periphery of a plume very warm and more
strongly capping elevated mixed-layer air is also in the process of
advecting across this region, downstream of a mid/upper trough
progressing across the Canadian Rockies into the Canadian Prairies.
This may tend to finally suppress any stronger convection attempting
to cross the international border.

..Kerr/Gleason.. 06/24/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...

LAT...LON   49960439 49890138 49159975 48470071 49000288 49130456
            49960439