Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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Issued by NWS
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217 ACUS11 KWNS 212154 SWOMCD SPC MCD 212153 AZZ000-212330- Mesoscale Discussion 1363 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0453 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 Areas affected...Southeastern Arizona Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 212153Z - 212330Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered strong to severe winds are possible in parts of southeastern Arizona. DISCUSSION...A tropical moisture plume within the Southwest (PWAT values greater than 1 in. per GPS TPW in southeast Arizona) continues to foster isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms. Shear is relatively weak per regional VAD data, and strong heating has been somewhat muted by high-level cloud cover. Even so, temperature-dewpoint spreads are sufficient to support a few strong to severe wind gusts. With higher than average moisture content, enough storm coverage may exist for a cluster to two to develop. Should this occur, a locally greater wind threat would exist with those clusters. Storm coverage into the western portions of the Phoenix metro is fairly uncertain, but outflow could try and push westward into a much more well-mixed boundary layer (temperatures in excess of 110 F) and produce strong winds. ..Wendt/Edwards.. 06/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR... LAT...LON 31641073 32521129 33181163 33771178 34111143 34141078 33800978 33380920 32300911 31530913 31330986 31351053 31641073