055
ACUS11 KWNS 162039
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162039
OKZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-162215-

Mesoscale Discussion 1290
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0339 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Areas affected...the OK Panhandle...northern Texas
Panhandle...western Kansas and far eastern Colorado

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 162039Z - 162215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...There is a threat for isolated to scattered thunderstorms
this afternoon capable of large hail or severe wind gusts.

DISCUSSION...A few thunderstorms have formed in southwest Kansas
where the combination of heat (upper 90s) and dewpoints in the low
to mid 60s has combined to break the cap. Shear is relatively weak
in this area (20 to 25 knots), although some multicells or
occasional supercells may be possible. Given the strongly unstable
environment downstream (2000+ J/kg MLCAPE), at least some large
hail/severe wind threat will persist with this activity as it
continues into early evening before weakening near sunset as the
boundary layer cools.

A better environment is present farther north (2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE
and 40-50 knots of shear) in northwest Kansas and vicinity. However,
storm development is more uncertain here with a strong CAP shown by
the 20Z LBF RAOB. Some high-based cumulus have developed in this
region. If storms can form, they will likely be supercellular with a
threat for large to potentially 2+ inch hail and severe wind gusts.
Therefore, will continue to monitor this region for a potential
watch if development appears imminent this afternoon. Regardless of
this afternoon threat, increased severe chances are expected this
evening from northwest Kansas northward as the low-level jet
strengthens.

..Bentley/Gleason.. 06/16/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

LAT...LON   36080335 37580246 38610246 39300260 39750260 40180134
            40190068 39590030 38130032 37900037 36840073 36330143
            36120257 36080335