Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
476 ACUS11 KWNS 170210 SWOMCD SPC MCD 170210 NDZ000-170345- Mesoscale Discussion 2075 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0910 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Areas affected...Portions of northern North Dakota Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 673... Valid 170210Z - 170345Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 673 continues. SUMMARY...Large hail and severe wind gusts remain possible across portions of northern North Dakota -- within Severe Thunderstorm Watch 673. DISCUSSION...Latest radar data from KMBX indicates a persistent cluster of thunderstorms tracking eastward along an east/west-oriented warm front/stationary boundary draped across northern North Dakota. Along the southern periphery of the cluster, a couple deeper/embedded rotating updrafts are evident, aided by warmer/moister inflow south of the boundary, and favorable/increasing low-level hodograph curvature (sampled by regional VWP data). In the near-term, large hail (generally up to 1.75 inches) and locally severe wind gusts are the primary concerns with these embedded supercell structures. During the next few hours, this cluster of storms should maintain its current intensity and organization as it continues generally eastward along the boundary -- aided by mesoscale forcing associated with an embedded MCV and a plume of low-level warm advection atop the boundary. The primary severe risk may remain focused along the southern periphery of the larger thunderstorm cluster, with less certainty north of the boundary where low-level inhibition is greater. ..Weinman.. 09/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS... LAT...LON 48040104 48410063 48769990 48899941 48939852 48749794 48249766 47849790 47759825 47600072 47690110 48040104